Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Gold is higher.
SN is near 11.84. SN remains in 11,70-12.00 range. With focus now on end of month USDA acreage and stocks report and summer weather. Iowa and C Illinois rains offered resistance. USDA did announce 120 mt US soybeans to unknown.US soybean export commit is down 14 pct vs ly. Dalian soybean, soymeal prices and vegoil were lower. One private group est US 2023/24 carryout 400 mil bu vs USDA 350, 2024/25 510 vs USDA 455. USDA still est China soybean imports at 105 mmt vs China est of 96 and 2024/25 imports at 109 mmt vs China est of 94. CONAB est Brazil crop at 147.4 mmt vs USDA 153.
CN is near 4.56. US Midwest could see warm and dry weather. Managed funds remain short and unwilling to cover shorts given recent USDA bearish report and good start to US summer crop season. USDA est Brazil crop at 122. CONAB est was 114. BAGE est crop at 46.5 mmt vs USDA 53. USDA est China 2 year corn imports at 46 mmt vs China est of 32.5. Weekly US corn export commit was up 36 pct vs ly.
WN is near 6.12. USDA suggest higher US HRW supplies and tighter SRW. Some feel once US WW harvest is near 50 pct, there is a chance for a price rally due to lower World supply. USDA est Russia wheat crop at 83 mmt, Some are below 80. Weekly US wheat export commit is up 22 pct vs ly. Trade will keep one eye on US sales to see if buyers switch from Black Sea to US and the other eye on new technical signals.
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