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Surprising Jump in Jobless Claims


Stock index futures firmed when the jobless claims report was released.

Jobless claims in the week ended June 3 jumped to the highest level since October 2021, coming in at 261,000 when 235,500 were expected.

The 9:00 central time April wholesale inventories report is anticipated to show a 0.2% decline.

Futures continue to overperform the news.


The U.S. dollar index is lower in response to the substantially larger than predicted jobless claims report.

The euro zone economy unexpectedly shrank 0.1% on quarter in the first three months of 2023, compared to early estimates of a 0.1% increase. Figures for the last quarter of 2022 were also revised to show a 0.1% decline, instead of an unchanged reading, which means the euro zone has now entered a technical recession.

The ECB will decide monetary policy June 15, and recent comments from officials suggest borrowing costs will continue to increase.

Japan’s economy expanded at a faster pace than initially estimated in the January-March quarter,    growing 2.7% on an annualized basis, compared with the 1.6% expansion recorded in the preliminary estimate released in May.

Yesterday the Bank of Canada raised its target for the overnight rate to 4.75% from 4.50%, marking a 22-year high.  Analysts anticipate another quarter point hike at the July meeting.


Futures were lower but quickly reversed and are now mostly higher in response to the large jobless claims number.

There are no major Federal Reserve speakers scheduled for today.

Federal Reserve policy limits the extent to which Federal Open Market Committee participants and staff can speak publicly or grant interviews during Federal Reserve’s blackout periods, which start the second Saturday preceding a FOMC meeting and end the Thursday following a meeting, unless otherwise noted. Blackout dates for the upcoming policy meeting are June 3-15.

Financial futures markets are predicting there is a 73% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will keep its fed funds rate unchanged at its June 14 policy meeting, and there is a 27% chance of a 25 basis point increase.


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