ADMIS News
COCOA
March Cocoa is higher this morning but in the lower half of yesterday range down action that too the market to its lowest level since October, 2024. The nearby contract traded to its lowest level since January 2024. Weather reports from West Africa indicate occasional rainfall of light to locally moderate amounts, not enough to cause problems with harvest or drying or transportation to port. World Weather Inc. does not expect much change in weather is likely through the next week. Areas near the coast will remain wettest while good drying conditions occur farther to the north where crop maturation is under way along with some early harvesting. Ivory Coast port arrivals have picked up in recent weeks, providing evidence of a strong main crop.
COFFEE
March Coffee is in a consolidation pattern as it waits for an indication on the status of the tariffs on Brazilian coffee imports into US. There has been scant news this week on the negotiations between US and Brazilian trade representative. The US has lifted the 10% tariff, but the remaining 40% tariff remains in place. The trade also awaits a Supreme Court decision on the legality. Brazilian growers may be reluctant to sell their coffee until they now the status of the tariffs. ICE certified stocks increased by 3,810 bags yesterday to 400,323 after falling to their lowest level since March 6, 2024 the previous day. This was the first daily increase since October 27 and was attributed to a 3,535-bag increase in Brazil-origin coffee into Antwerp.
COTTON
The bulls may be encouraged by the fact the cotton market did not collapse in the wake of the bearish USDA report on Friday. They may also be looking towards this morning’s export sales report for any indication that sales may have picked up during the blackout from the government shutdown. Today’s report will cover the week ending October 2. Last week’s report showed net sales of 199,506 bales for the week ending September 25, which was an improvement over the previous week but not the highest of the season. Cumulative sales are still running at the slowest pace in 11 years in terms of the total amount and the slowest in five years relative to the USDA forecast.
SUGAR
March Sugar sold off yesterday after failing to take last week’s high and is under mild pressure this morning. The rally off the November 6 contract low (and five-year low on the nearby chart) has corrected an oversold technical condition. Yesterday’s Commitments of Traders update showed managed money traders were net buyers of 19,823 contracts of sugar for the week ending September 30, reducing their net short to 131,776. This is not a record net short but is historically large and would be considered on the oversold side of the spectrum.
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