Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. There is talk that tariffs may be delayed with new negotiations. US Dollar is lower. US stocks are lower. Crude is unch near $71. Gold is higher. CBOT closed Sunday night and Monday for holiday. Monday evening session reopens for trading. Happy Valentines Day.
SOYBEANS
SK is near 10.56. Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil and palmoil were higher. Weekly US soybean export sales were lower than expected and near only 185 mt. Total commit is near 43.2 mmt or up 12 pct vs last year and USDA est of up 8. US NOPA Jan soybean crush is est at 204.5 mil bu vs 185.7 last year. End of Jan soyoil stocks are est at 1,289 mil lbs vs 1,507 last year. Rains return to Brazil. Slow movement of soybeans to ports helps firm Brazil soybean premiums. Argentina rains is helping slow crop decline but Argentina continues to drop crop ratings.
CORN
CK is near 5.09. CH rallied over 5.00 on increase volume and open interest. Crude is unch awaiting news on talk of US and Russia Ukraine peace talks. Slow Brazil harvest and lower Argentina crop est is helping outlook for US corn exports. Weekly US corn export salles were 1,650 mt and near higher range of trade est. Total export commit is near 46.4 mmt vs 36.3 last year or up 28 pct vs ly and USDA est of up 7. Rains return to Brazil. Slow 2nd crop plantings is helping Brazil futures, could drop final crop and help US exports. Argentina rains is helping slow crop decline but Argentina continues to drop crop ratings.
WHEAT
WK is near 6.01. KWK is near 6.18. MWH is near 640. WK breached 6.00 and is near 200 DMA at 6.11. Volume remains high and open interest continues to drop. World 2025 weather uncertainty could be offering support. Ukraine and Russia weather is dry. Russia temps turn colder next week. US plains are dry with colder temps newt week. India is warm and dry. Most doubt US crop is a concern with sone cover.. USDA dropped China demand for wheat, corn and soyoil 22 mmt, US wheat export sales were 569 mt and better than expected. Total commit is near 19.1 mmt or up 9 pct vs ly and USDA est of up 20 pct.
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