Global Ag News for Nov 9
TODAY—WEEKLY EXPORT INSPECTIONS—CROP PROGRESS/CONDITION REPORTS
Overnight trade has SRW Wheat down roughly 4 cents, HRW down 4; HRS Wheat down 6, Corn is down 4 cents; Soybeans up 2; Soymeal up $1.00, and Soyoil up 5 points.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices were up roughly 4 cents; HRW up 14; HRS up 5; Corn was up 8 cents; Soybeans up 45;
Soymeal up $9.00, and; Soyoil up 175 points. Crushing margins were down 7 cents at $1.22; Oil share was unchanged at 31%.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled down 23 yuan in soybeans, down 32 in Corn, down 51 in Soymeal, up 4 in Soyoil, and down 38 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were up 46 ringgit at 3,227 (basis January) on ideas of lower stocks, awaits tomorrow’s trade data for October.
South America Weather Forecast: Argentina and Brazil received insignificant precipitation during the Friday through Sunday morning period and temperatures were warm enough to accelerate drying across both countries; limited rain and warm weather during the weekend has further depleted soil moisture and raised stress for recently emerged crops; the next ten days of rain will be of critical importance for grain and oilseeds; confidence is high that all of these areas will get rain sufficient to maintain crop development except in far southern Brazil and eastern Argentina.U.S. Weather Forecast: Rain with some snow and sleet will occur in the western U.S. Corn Belt early this week before shifting to the Great Lakes region during mid-week; moisture totals will vary from 0.30 to 1.25 inches with local totals approaching 2.00 inches. Very little precipitation will occur in the Great Plains from the Dakotas through eastern Colorado and western Kansas to western Texas; these areas will not be totally dry, but the light precipitation expected will be brief having little impact on winter crop conditions or establishment; these areas will continue drier biased through Nov. 20 and perhaps into the week of Nov. 22.
The player sheet had funds net sellers of 5,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; sold 10,000 Corn; sold 2,000 Soybeans; sold 3,000 Soymeal, and; were net even in Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net long 44,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 301,000 Corn; net long 238,000 Soybeans; net long 90,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 99,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 4,000 contracts; HRW Wheat down 6,000; Corn up 8,300; Soybeans up 3,700 contracts; Soymeal down 785 lots, and; Soyoil up 1,500.
Deliveries were 6 contracts for Soybeans.
There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 109 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 1; Soybeans 297; Soyoil 1,808 lots; Soymeal 193; Rice 417; HRW Wheat 113, and; HRS 1,195.
Tender Activity—Jordan seeks 120,000t optional-origin wheat—Saudi Arabia bought 860,000t optional-origin wheat—Ethiopia bought 600,000t optional-origin wheat—Iran seeks 60,000t optional-origin corn, 60,000t soymeal—
- USDA FORECASTS 2021/22 U.S. CORN PLANTINGS AT 90.0 MILLION ACRES, CROP AT 14.890 BILLION BUSHELS
- USDA FORECASTS 2021/22 U.S. SOYBEAN PLANTINGS AT 89.0 MILLION ACRES, CROP AT 4.465 BILLION BUSHELS
- USDA FORECASTS 2021/22 U.S. ALL-WHEAT PLANTINGS AT 46.0 MILLION ACRES, CROP AT 1.890 BILLION BUSHELS
- USDA PROJECTS 2021/22 U.S. CORN ENDING STOCKS AT 2.257 BILLION BUSHELS, SOY ENDING STOCKS AT 255 MILLION BU, WHEAT ENDING STOCKS AT 830 MILLION BU
U.S. farmers are likely to expand plantings of soybeans and wheat while slightly reducing seedings of corn for the upcoming marketing year, the U.S. Agriculture Department said
Chicago-traded corn futures fell last week over fears of rising global coronavirus cases, but speculators continued to buy the yellow grain as export demand remains strong; that optimism lingered late in the week with robust import possibilities in China.
China’s soybean imports jumped 41% in October from a year ago, according to data from the General Administration of Customs, as delayed Brazilian cargoes cleared customs and U.S. soybean arrivals grew; China brought in 8.69 million tons of the oilseed in October, up from 6.18 million tons in the same month of the previous year, as crushers booked Brazilian beans earlier on good crush margins and as more U.S. beans started to flow in; the figures were down from 9.8 million tons in September, as shipments from Brazil started to dwindle with the harvest season in South America approaching an end.
Imports of vegetable oils were 885,000 tons in October, down 3.9% from the previous month.
Brazilian soybean producers have already sold 55.1% of the expected soybean crop for the 2020-2021 growing season as of Friday, according to agricultural consultancy Safras & Mercado; that compares to 34.6% on the same date last year and the average of 30.3% for the date; Safras forecasts Brazil will produce a record crop of 133.5 million metric tons of soybeans in the 2020-2021 season, for which planting is already underway.
Higher grain costs are seen weighing on protein processors like BRF SA and JBS SA when they report third quarter results next week even as export markets stayed strong in the three-month period; while China remained a key export destination buying ever-larger meat volumes from Brazil and other origins, it is now paying lower premiums, according to a Nov. 2 report from a HSBC analyst; the weaker Brazilian real is a double-edged sword that has made Brazilian protein exports more competitive globally, but also increased input costs; China has been able to negotiate lower prices and absorb higher quantities as it continues to face African swine fever (ASF) pressures; Corn, another key livestock feed ingredient, soared 46% in local currency over the third quarter.
Ukraine has collected 54.4 million tons of grain from 13.6 million hectares, or 89% of the sown area, as of Nov. 5, Ukraine’s economy ministry said; it said farmers had completed the wheat and barley harvest and collected 18.6 million tons of corn from 3.8 million hectares, or 69% of the sown area; the ministry expects the grain crop could fall to around 68 million tons in 2020 from a record 75 million tons in 2019 due to severe drought across most parts of the country.
Ukraine has exported 17.13 million tons of grain so far in the season running from July 2020 to June 2021, 14.5% down on the same period last season, the economy ministry said; it said exports had fallen because of lower corn shipments.
Ukrainian wheat and corn export prices were almost unchanged over the last week due to improving prospects for the 2021 harvest, APK-Inform agriculture consultancy said; Ukrainian 12.5% protein Black Sea wheat prices traded at $252-$256 per ton FOB Black Sea at the end of last week; for the lower-quality 11.5% protein wheat, prices were between $250 and $252 a ton FOB.
This marketing year (July 2020 through June 2021) Kazakhstan plans to export 500,000 tons of wheat and flour to China, the press service of the Kazakh Ministry of Agriculture told Interfax-Kazakhstan; last marketing year (2019-2020) Kazakhstan exported 339,600 tons of wheat and flour in grain equivalent to China; Kazakhstan will thus increase wheat and flour exports to China by 47.23% in 2020-2021.
The European Union is likely to impose tariffs on $4 billion of U.S. imports next week after an award by the World Trade Organization in a dispute over subsidies for aircraft maker Boeing, EU diplomats said.
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