Explore Special Offers & White Papers from ADMIS

The CPI Report Dominates Trade



The February consumer price index increased 0.4% as expected, and the consumer price index excluding food and energy was up 0.4% when a gain of 0.3% was anticipated.

The National Federation of Independent Business Small Business Optimism Index declined to 89.4 in February 2024, the lowest in nine months, from 89.9 in January, and under forecasts of 90.7.

Stock index futures quickly declined when the larger than expected increase in the consumer price index excluding food and energy was reported. However, since then prices have recovered and are now trading substantially higher.




The U.S. dollar index was steady in the overnight trade. The greenback quickly advanced when the larger than expected increase in the consumer price index excluding food and energy was reported but very quickly gave it back.

Regular compensation, which excludes bonus payments in the U.K., was up 6.1% year-on-year in the three months to January 2024, the lowest growth rate since October 2022, below a 6.2% gain in the previous period and expectations of 6.2%.


Futures came under pressure when the consumer price index was released.

The Treasury will auction 10-year notes today.

Financial futures markets are predicting there is a 1.0% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower its fed funds rate by 25 basis points at the March 20 meeting, and there is a 99% chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged.

While futures at the long end of the curve are technically looking better, the fundamentals and technicals remain bearish on balance for futures at the short end of the yield curve.



Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore Special Offers & White Papers from ADMIS

Get Started