Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SX is up 15 cents and near 13.06. SMZ is near 354.3. BOZ is near 58.16. CZ is up 4 cents and near 5.41. WZ is up 10 cents and near 7.38. KWZ is up 8 cents and near 7.25. MWZ is up 8 cents and near 9.10. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher.
Higher Asian stocks is helping US stocks. Commodity markets may be oversold. Dollar is lower. Weekend US Midwest rains were less than expected in SD, NE, S IA and C IL IN. Dry forecast.
Dalian, corn, soybean, soymeal, soyoil and palmoil futures are all lower. Covid? Imports?
Since June USDA, Brazil and US corn production down 32.5 mmt, futures down 90 cents since report. Since August report Chicago wheat futures are down 58 cents despite 17 mmt drop in World crop. Since July 1 SX dropped 146 cents and soyoil record 9 cents due to concern about demand.
Pro Farmer US corn yield at 177 vs USDA 174.6. US 2021 corn crop estimated at 15,116 vs USDA 14,750. Pro Farmer US soybean yield at 51.2 vs USDA 50. US 21 soybean crop estimated at 4,434 vs USDA 4,339.
US fob corn prices are competitive to Black Sea $7.50 corn and Brazil $7.75 corn prices. EU Sep wheat futures and Russia domestic wheat prices higher on supply concerns. Russia spring crop outlook lower. Talk of restricted exports. N Hemisphere wheat soils dry for planting. Argentina 2022 soybean planted acres could be near 15 year low. Corn acres record high. Brazil corn planting weather dry. Argentina weather dry could stress wheat.
Lower Canada canola/Russia sunseed crop helps vegoil prices despite lower US biofuel mandate. EPA is not formally making any proposed RFS levels at this time. EPA will finalize levels by Nov.
On Friday, Managed funds were net sellers of 8,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; 137000 corn, 15,000 soybeans; 12,000 soyoil and 4,000 soymeal. We estimate Managed Money net long 13,000 SRW Wheat; long 259,000 Corn; net long 70,000 Soybeans; net long 23,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 54,000 lots of soyoil.
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