ADMIS News
COFFEE
ICE certified coffee stocks fell 500 bags to 429,770—their lowest since March 8, 2024—while pending stocks climbed to 8,578 bags, the highest since late September. Traders are reportedly shipping around 150,000 bags of Brazilian arabica to ICE warehouses in Europe, driven by lower domestic prices that make deliveries to the exchange profitable. About 60,000 bags may be tendered against December futures and another 100,000 before March. Weather in Brazil remains erratic but supportive for crop development. In Vietnam, Typhoon Kalmaegi is bringing heavy rain, though major coffee regions are largely safe. Vietnam’s October coffee exports rose 55% year-over-year to 70,000 metric tons, bringing 2024 exports to 1.31 million tons, up 13% from last year.
COCOA
December Cocoa gapped lower overnight after failing to reached the 50-day moving average, much less the 0.382 retracement of the selloff from the August high to the October low yesterday. Concerns about demand are proving stubborn. Barry Callebaut said yesterday that it expected sales of cocoa products to decline by a percentage in the mid-single digits in its coming financial year, due to pressure from high cocoa prices. Southern Ghana received some heavy rainfall over the last 24 hours, which could slow harvest but also be beneficial for the crop over the long term. World Weather Inc. says rain through Sunday in Ivory Coast will be greater than what has occurred recently. Rains will be scattered to occasionally numerous, with similar conditions in Ghana and Cameroon. Shower activity will diminish again next week. ICE stocks fell 3,860 bags yesterday to 1.807 million, the lowest since March 28. Ivory Coast arrivals started out slow, but they did show some improvement this week.
COTTON
The USDA is collecting new survey data for its November 14 crop report—the first update since the October 1 shutdown. Favorable weather has supported strong yields, particularly in Texas, though drought earlier in the season could limit overall production. The September estimate put 2025/26 US cotton output at 13.22 million bales, down from 14.41 million last year. Exports remain behind pace, with sales at 36% of the forecast versus a five-year average of 53%. The Supreme Court is reviewing the legality of Trump-era tariffs, and a ruling against them could boost US cotton exports.
SUGAR
March sugar futures hit a new contract low for a second straight day before rebounding to the 9-day moving average. After a steep 17% decline over the past month, bearish momentum appears to be slowing. However, concerns persist over potential export expansion from India. Indian mills are pressing for approval to double export permits to 2 million tons, citing reduced cane use for ethanol and a growing sugar surplus. ISMA projects 2025/26 production at 30.95 million tons, while Czarnikow forecasts 32.8 million, raising the expected global surplus to 8.7 million tons. Competition from Brazil and shifting ethanol allocations remain key market factors.
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