Trade Debates USDA vs Reality
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SN is up 9 cents and near 14.81. SMN is near 462.0. BON is near 53.59. CN is up 1 cent and near 6.29. WN is down 3 cents and near 6.84. KWN is down 6 cents and near 8.40. MWN is down 1 cent and near 8.59. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is slightly lower. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, cocoa, cotton and sugar are higher.
Soybean futures continue higher. SN-SX is near +168. Old crop supported by strong US domestic basis. New crop continues to find resistance from favorable US spring planting weather. Argentina lowered their soybean crop to 23 mmt vs USDA 27. Record large Brazil crop could attract more China business vs US. Weekly US soybean export sales are est near 250-600 mt vs 155 last week. Soyoil futures down on slow increase in US biofuel production.
Corn futures are slightly higher. Trade still debating USDA April numbers vs reality. US corn export and feed and residual could be higher which suggest lower carryout. Argentina lowered their corn crop to 32 mmt vs USDA 37. Large Brazil crop and increased Ukraine exports may offset the lower Argentina supply. Brazil new crop supply may not be available until July. Weekly US corn export sales are est near 500-1,300 mt vs 1,246 last week.
Wheat futures are lower. Could be some KC-Chicago profit talking. Failure for KWK to trade over 8.85 could also be triggering some selling. Black Sea vessel inspections resumed after short stoppage. Large EU and Russia supplies offers resistance versus 2023 north hemisphere weather support. Weekly US wheat export sales are est near 75-350 mt vs 193 last week.
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