Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. North America weather forecast is crop favorable. Stocks are mixed. Crude is higher, USD is higher. Gold is slightly lower. Most doubt any US/China trade deal soon. USDA US and World supply and demand report June 12.
SOYBEANS
SN is near 10.58. Trade expected new selling near 10.65 SN and 10.30 SX. Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil and palmoil futures were higher. Malaysian May palmoil production ,exports and stocks were higher than expected. There remains uncertainty over EPA biofuel policy. Trade est US 2024/25 soybean carryout to 351 mil bu and 2025/6 at 298. Trade est World 2025/26 soybean end stocks at 124.5 mmt vs 124.3 in May. USDA rated US soybean crop 68 pct G/E vs 67 last week and 72 ly. IA 80, IL 59, US soybean exports are up 11 pct vs ly and USDA up 9. China May soybean imports were record 13.6 mmt and on pace for 100 mmt total imports. Matif and Canada canola futures higher on tight old crop supply.
CORN
CN is near 4.32 after big selloff Monday. Trade est US 2024/25 corn carryout to 1,392 mil bu and 2025/26 at 1,792. Trade est World 2025/26 corn end stocks at 278.8 mmt vs 277.8 in May. Trade fears that in 2025 World corn supply could increase 37-40 mmt. If true, US 2025 corn yield would have to drop below 174 to rally prices. USDA rated US corn crop 71 pct G/E vs 69 last week and 75 ly. IA 85, IL 68. US corn exports are up 29 pxt vs ly and USDA up 13. US Gulf basis lower, PNW higher, US Domestic firmer and Monday lower futures. S Korea bought corn $9 below last month. Vietnam signed deal to buy US corn vs SA. Ukraine corn supply tight with exports 18 mmt or 82 pct of USDA 22 mmt goal.
WHEAT
WN dropped to 5.37. KWN is near 5.34. MWN is near 6.20. Showers are forecast for China, Canada and S Russia. Est for Russia crop are higher and near 84 mmt. Trade est US wheat crop at 1,924 mil bu vs 1,921 in May. Trade est US 2024/25 wheat carryout to 842 mil bu and 2025/26 at 924. USDA rated US WW crop 54 G/E vs 47 ly. Harvest 4 pct vs 11 ly. US SW crop 53 G/E vs 72 ly.
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