Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Higher trade across most of the Ag space this AM as we await the weekly export sales data. As a reminder commodity markets are closed tomorrow as our country celebrates the 250th year of our Independence. Except for soybean oil speculative traders have been healthy buyers across agricultural markets since the USDA stocks/acreage updates on Tuesday. Energy prices are lower as headlines from the Middle east have been scarce. Spot WTI crude oil is down $1.25 a barrel near $67.35 having traded to a fresh 4-month low. Spot RBOB is down $.06 per gallon with HO off $.04. The central Midwest remained dry the past 24 hours. Scattered rains for the Gulf coast and WCB while areas of the N. Midwest saw heavy precipitation. Rainfall through the Holiday weekend will favor the N. Midwest and Great Lakes region. Temperatures across the central Midwest will gradually ease as the high pressure ridge shifts west. Western Europe remains hot/dry. Scattered rain for the interior south of Brazil where temperature remain below normal. Warm and dry for the central and northern regions. The US $$$ is lower while US stock indices are mixed as we await US employment data.
Corn:
Sept-26 is up $.03 ¼ at $4.26 while Dec-26 is up $.02 ¼ at $4.44 ½ with both having traded into new highs for the week. Usage for ethanol production in May-26 at nearly 472 mil. bu. was above expectations and 6% above May-25. Through the first 9 months of the 25/26 MY corn usage has reached 4.127 bil bu., up 1.34% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 2.56%. To reach the current USDA estimate, usage in Q4 will need to reach 1.448 bil bu up 5.8% from YA. Tomorrow’s export sales are expected to range from 32-86 mil bu.
Soybeans:
Aug-26 and Nov-26 soybeans are both up $.06 ½ at $11.39 ¾ and $11.55 ¾ respectively. Aug-26 meal is up $3.60 at $308.90 while Aug-26 oil is down 8 points at 66.61. Meal stretched out to a 4-week high while the rest of the complex is within yesterday’s range. Crush margins fell another $.04 to $2.81 ½ bu. US FOB offers at the Gulf are slightly below Brazilian offers as we await evidence of additional Chinese demand. Census crush in May at 213 mil. bu. was slightly below expectations while bringing YTD crush to 1.997 bil bu up 8.2% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 8.4%. To reach the current USDA forecast of 2.650 bil bu monthly crush June-August will need to average 218 mil. bu. vs. 200 mil. YA. Bean oil stocks fell to 2.315 bil lbs however was nearly 100 mil. above expectations. Export sales are expected to range from 25-50 mil bu for soybeans, 150-500k tons for meal and 0-13k tons for oil.
Wheat:
Prices are steady to $.03 higher across the 3 classes. CGO Sept-26 is up $.03 ¼ at $6.03 ¼, KC Sept-26 is $.02 ¼ higher at $6.37 ¼ while MIAX Sept is steady at $6.18 ½. CGO and KC futures have held within yesterday’s range. Resistance for CGO rests at $61.7 ¾, while $6.48 ½ for KC. The Govt. of Bangladesh has approved the purchase of 220k mt of US wheat. Open interest was little changed in yesterday’s trade suggesting the price increase wasn’t just a short covering rally. CFTC-COT updates are delayed until Monday. Export sales are expected to range from 10-20 mil. bu.
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