Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. US stocks are higher. Fed day. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Gold is unch but did test new high near 3,052. USDA March 31 stocks and acreage report and April 2 when new tariff reciprocal will be announced will be key to price volatility. Only change after Trump/Putin call was Russia agreed to pause attacks on Ukraine energy infrastructure.
SOYBEANS
SK is near 10.12. . SMK-SMN spread is record -8.00. US soymeal export price near $347 vs Argentina $332. Dalian soybean, soymeal futures were lower. Palmoil and soyoil were higher. C Brazil rains slowing harvest. S Brazil is dry. Argentina is dry but rain next week. USDA acreage and March 1 stocks report next. Trade could see US 2025 acres near 83.0 vs 87.0 ly. Stocks 1,880 mil bu vs 1,845 ly. Trade War, tariffs and global weather adds to trade uncertainty.
CORN
CK is near 4.57. CZ-CH26 spread widened to -13. Dalian corn futures were lower. S Brazil remains dry. Brazil ethanol production increasing. US NW Midwest is dry. US PNW corn prices remain cheapest to Asia buyers and now gulf to North Africa. Trade looking for lower 2025 corn prices if US farmers plant 94.0 mil corn acres vs 90.6 last year and summer weather is normal. US domestic corn feed use is seeing competition from wheat and sorghum. Trade could see US March 1 stocks near 8,200 mil bu vs 8,352 ly. US Barley farmers concerned about tariffs to Mexico and drop in US beer consumption.
WHEAT
WK is near 5.65. KWK is near 6.10. MWK is near 6.10. WK-WN spread out to -17. KWK-KWU spread narrowed to -12. Wheat is supported by dry weather across US south plains and Black Sea. Wheat futures continue to struggle near key moving average resistance on concern about export demand and drop in World economies. There is a chance for KS rain. EU wheat exports are down 34 pct vs ly. Iraq announced they will export 2 mmt wheat vs normal import 2-4 mmt, Russia export est at 40.0 mmt vs USDA 45.0 and 55.0 ly. US 2025 all wheat acres could be near 46.6 vs 46.0 ly. March 1 stocks 1,225 mil bu vs 1,089 ly.
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