Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. Gold is higher on inflation concern and safe haven buying.
SOYBEANS
SK is near 10.09.. Dalian soybean, soymeal soyoil and palmoil were higher. Argentina soybean crushing workers lifted strike. Conab est Brazil soybean crop at 167.37 mmt up 1.3 mmt from their Feb est. Most est are closer to 170. Increase Brazil farmer selling offset increase China demand. Brazil 2 week forecat is drier than normal. US soybean export sales were 751 mt. Total commit is near 45.0 mmt vs 39.5 ly. USDA goal is 49.6 mmt vs 46.1 ly. Soymeal sales were 184 mt. Total commit is near 11.0 mmt vs 9.8 ky. mt. USDA goal is 15.8 mmt vs 14.6 ly. Soyoil sales were 68 mt. Total commit is 832 mt vs 72 ly. SK back near 10.00 support. Trade War, tariffs and global weather adds to trade uncertainty.
CORN
CK is near 4.60. 4.55 is key support. Dalian corn futures were higher. Brazil remains dry. Conab est Brazil corn crop at 122.76 mmt vs USDA 126.0. US NW Midwest is dry. Rains in ECB. Delta and SE. US PNW corn prices remain cheapest to Asia buyers and now gulf to North Africa. Weekly US corn export sales were 961 mt. Total commit is near 50.5 mmt vs 40.5 ly. USDA goal is 62.2 mmt vs 58.2 last year. China was a buyers of Brazil and Ukraine corn.
WHEAT
WK is near 5.61. KWK is near 5.90. MWK is near 6.05. US plains will remain dry with moderating temps. Black Sea is also dry. USDA raised World wheat end stocks. Argentina and Australia prices are now competitive to North Africa. Weekly US wheat export sales were 783 mt and higher than expected. Total commit is near 21.0 mmr vs 18.5 ly. USDA goal is 22.7 vs 19.2 ly. Tunisia bit World wheat at $269 vs $262 in Feb. Russia prices are near $247. Managed funds are short US futures and record short Matif wheat futures. North Hemisphere crop are Made in April and May but trade will need to monitor US Plains and Black Sea weather.
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