ADMIS News
COTTON
Traders will be watching this morning’s weekly export sales report for clues on how US sales are faring in the face of upcoming tariffs and tariff negotiations. The US dollar is higher this week, but it is still hovering around its lowest levels in three years, and this makes US cotton more attractively priced. The postponement of the worst of the tariffs until July may also increase the urgency for shipments. On the other hand, the threat to the global economy could lower cotton demand around the world. Last week’s export sales report showed net cotton sales for the week ending April 17 at 104,005 bales for the 2024/25 (current) marketing year and net sales of 38,000 for 2025/26 for a total of 142,005. This was down from 267,879 the previous week. Cumulative sales had reached 106% of the USDA forecast for the 2024/25 marketing year versus a five-year average of 105% for this point in the season. Yesterday’s disappointing first quarter US GDP and April ADP nonfarm payroll numbers added to pressure on the cotton market, but the declines were small compared to the steep drops on Monday and Tuesday. After an initial selloff, US equity prices reversed and closed higher on the day were higher again overnight, which may mitigate some of the worry in the cotton market this morning. US planting progress is ahead of normal thanks to a strong start for Texas. Texas’ soil moisture has considerably in recent weeks. More rain is expected, and some areas may experience flooding that could slow progress.
COCOA
July Cocoa was lower this morning following a decent bounce off the 50-day moving average yesterday. Reports that Mondelez’ first-quarter sales volumes dropped 3.5% after it increased its prices by 6.6% was viewed as a bearish indicator for demand, but on the whole, demand indicators have been mixed, with first-quarter grindings down from last year but not as bad as anticipated. Increased rainfall in West Africa recently has stemmed some concerns about the mid-crop, especially for later this summer. The extended dry pattern earlier this year has lowered expectations for the early part of the harvest, which typically gets underway in May. World Weather Service expects daily showers and thunderstorms in West Africa through the next week, with all cocoa areas receiving rain at one time or another. Daily rain will vary greatly, with some areas getting only sporadic and light amounts while others moderate to locally heavy rainfall. ICE certified stocks increased by 41,328 bags yesterday to 2.036 million, the highest since October 9.
SUGAR
July Sugar sold off hard yesterday and extended its losses overnight after the bi-monthly UNICA report on Brazil Center-South sugar production for first half of April came in stronger than expected. This was the first official report for the 2025/26 marketing year, and it showed cane at 16,598,000 metric tons, up 2.99% from a year ago. Sugar production totaled 731,000 tons, up 1.25%. Ethanol production came in at 918 million liters, up from 823 million a year ago (+11.5%). Sugar’s share crush was 44.8% versus 44.1% for the same period last year. There were 44.03 kilograms of sugar produced per ton of cane versus 44.79 kilograms a year prior. Earlier this week, the Brazilian agricultural agency CONAB forecast Brazil’s 2025/26 sugar production at 45.9 million metric tons, up 4% from 2024/25 and a new record. The India Food Secretary said overnight that Indian mills are likely to export around 800,000 metric tons of sugar in 2024/25. This is below the official quota of 1 million but up from recent ISMA forecasts of 600,000-700,000 tons. This may be the first time a government official has acknowledged that exports may not reach quota.
COFFEE
July Coffee is lower this morning but is still holding the uptrend pattern in place since the market bottomed out after the post tariff selloff. The market traded to new contract highs this week, primarily on concerns over Brazilian production. The harvest in Minas Gerais reaches full swing by mid-May, and this may limit further upside in prices until delivery numbers start to come in. The rainy season for Brazilian coffee areas is approaching its end, and World Weather Service expects limited precipitation and mild to warm temperature to dominate over the next ten days. ICE certified stocks increased by 1,057 bags yesterday to 813,668. This followed a 13,693-bag decline the day before.
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