Written Commentary
PRECIOUS METALS
Gold: Gold continues losses into a tenth-straight session as hawkish repricing of Fed expectations weighs on the metal as oil prices rallied overnight. April COMEX contracts are 1% lower at $4,363, after testing the 200-day MA on Monday. Despite President Trump’s comments on Monday, energy prices remain elevated and present material upside risks to inflation. Fed rate expectations continue to not price in any policy change from the central bank for the rest of 2026. However, the Fed is more likely to cut rates than to raise them given its dual mandate and the possibility of the bank looking through an energy price shock in an effort to support the labor market. Global central banks are experiencing a hawkish shift as persistent energy‑driven inflation risks change market expectation on policy. Gold is likely to continue to experience strong headwinds in the face of higher energy prices and risks that monetary policy could stay higher for longer. Like the equities, a sustained moved higher in gold will require material evidence of a de-escalation and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Until then, inflation expectations will play an outsized role in the metal’s direction.
Still, ongoing geopolitical risks and central‑bank reserve diversification continue to underpin longer‑term demand for bullion as a macro hedge, suggesting that while the near‑term balance of risks is tilted toward volatility around US data and Fed‑speak, structural support from official‑sector buying and strategic investors remains in place on deeper dips.
Silver: Silver futures are down 1.3% to $68.53. Silver remains down meaningfully from its January highs, and the wide 52‑week range highlights the role of speculative participation.
BASE METALS
Copper: Copper prices are lower, with benchmark three-month copper on the LME down 1.6% to $11,974. Copper has given up most of the previous session’s relief rally gains after Iran denied holding talks to end the war, easing geopolitical optimism. Risks around the conflict remain as a headwind to prices given the uncertainty and potential impacts on demand and monetary policy.
LME copper warehouse stocks have climbed relentlessly to 359,275 tonnes, nearly double the late-January level, after 11,800 tonnes of inflows on Monday. Broader exchange inventory overhang is above 1.25 million tonnes. The spread between the cash LME copper contract and the three-month forward remains in a steep contango of around $92 a ton.
Copper remains a market caught between structural bulls and cyclical sceptics. On one side, investors focused on grid build‑out, renewables and data‑center demand continue to view pullbacks as opportunities to maintain exposure to a constrained supply story. On the other, rising inventories, uneven Chinese property activity and slower factory growth in several major economies are encouraging macro funds to fade rallies and keep overall risk light.
Zinc: Zinc fell 0.8% to $3,053.
Aluminum: Aluminum was up 0.6% to $3,217.
Tin: Tin edged down 0.1% to $43,900.
Lead: Lead lost 0.5% to $1,889.
Nickel: Nickel slipped 0.6% to $16,985.
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