Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. US jobs data day. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is unch. Crude is slightly lower. Gold is lower. Next week’s US Midwest weather should near warm and dry. Some are watching a tropical depression that could impact Caribbean and/or Florida June 12-14.
SN is near 11.92. SN-SX spread is near +30. SX-SH is -16. Weekly US soybean export commit is down 14 pct vs ly. China still has not bought US soybeans. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil futures were higher, Big news was proposed higher Brazil income tax. Farmers stopped selling soybeans awaiting to see if Congress approves. Some feel taxes could impact farmers and crushers more than exporters. China May imports were 10.2. mmt vs 12.2 ly. Imports may drop below 100 mmt vs USDA est of 105. China est 2024/25 imports at 95 mmt USDA 105. US May soybean exports were 65 mil bu, down 29 vs ly. US Oct-May soymeal exports are 11.6 mt vs 9.9 ly. Trade est US 2023/24 soybean carryout at 350 vs USDA 340 and 2024/25 457 vs USDA 445.
CN is near 4.50.. CN-CZ near -17. Corn futures jumped higher on good weekly US export sales, potential new Brazil export tax and some new uncertainty over US summer weather. US weekly corn sales were better than expected and season to date commit is 34 pct vs ly. US May corn exports were 253 mil bu vs 199 ly and 10 pct higher than inspections. Brazil farmer stopped selling corn awaiting outcome of new tax. There was some new risk on commercial buying and increase buy corn and sell wheat spreading. Dalian corn futures hit 3 week high. Argentina corn harvest is near 35 pct with crop still est near 46.5 mmt vs USDA 53. Trade est US 2023/24 corn carryout at 2,008 vs USDA 2,022 and 2024/25 2,087 vs USDA 2,102.
WN is near 6.27. Wheat futures are down 7 straight days and lower overnight. US harvest pressure and net cancellations of US export commit continues to weigh on futures. New crop sales were better than expected. US export commit is near 685 mil bu vs USDA export goal of 720. Turkey announced ban on wheat imports from June 21-October 15. This due to record high supplies. Ban will impact Russia the most. Some feel most talk of lower Black Sea crops may be priced in futures.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
