Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
TGIF. Grains are mixed. Next USDA report Dec 9. US stocks are higher. USD is unch. Crude is lower. Gold, silver and copper are higher. UN World food index dropped 1 pct in November and is now down 20 pct from peak in March, 2022. Sugar, Dairy, Vegoil prices were lower. Cereals were higher.
SOYBEANS
SF is near 11.15. SF dropped below the 20 DMA support near 11.20. There were no new daily sales announced to China. Soymeal futures may be in trouble both technically and fundamentally with SMF dropping below Nov low. BOF dropped to 51 on no new EPA policy news. As Oct 30 US soybean export sales were 1,300 mt vs 1,449 week of Oct 23. Commit is down 38 pct vs ly and USDA est of down 13. Talk that China may delay buying rest of 12 mmt US soybeans that was talked about until 2026 is negative. Canada est a record canola crop.
CORN
CH is near 4.46. Dalian corn futures continue to trade higher due to debate on size of local crop. Brazil weather is favorable C/N but S Brazil is dry. Ukraine harvest running behind normal. Some est that 25-30 pct of corn crop is yet harvested. Higher Black Sea freight due to war risk as peace talks break down weighs on Ukraine export price. As of Oct 30 US corn export sales were 2,000 mt vs 1,805 week of Oct 23. Commit is up 31 pct vs ly and USDA est of up 9. US weekly ethanol production as a new record and up 4.9 pct vs ly. Stocks were up 3.4 pct vs 5 year ave.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.37. KWH is near 5.32. MWH is near 5.74. Argentina wheat crop protein down and could be more feed wheat. Canada est wheat crop a record 40.0 mmt vs their Sep est of 36.8. Canada wheat exports are 9.2 mmt vs 8.4 ly which is up 9.5 pct ly and vs USDA est of down 8. Higher Black Sea freight due to war risk as peace talks break raises cost of Black Sea wheat export price. As of Oct 30 US wheat export sales were 505 mt vs 499 week of Oct 23. Commit is up 22 pct vs ly and USDA est of up 9.
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