ADMIS News
SUGAR
July Sugar was higher overnight and came close to testing yesterday’s high. The UNICA report on Brazil center-south production for the second half of April will be released today. Recent rainfall there may have slowed the harvest down after it got off to a quick start. In the first half of April, center-south crush cane came in at 16.598 million tons, up from 16.117 million a year ago (+3%), and sugar production was 731,000 tons, up from 722,000 for the same period last year (+1.3%).
Louis Dreyfus said yesterday that it expects the global sugar market to switch from deficit of 5.2 million metric tons in 2024/25 to a surplus of 400,000 in 2025/26. They described Brazil’s crop as “very concerning” in terms of agricultural yields and sugar content in cane. They look for the center-south crop to come in at 39.3 million tons versus 40.2 million in 2024/25. (Last week, Conab put Brazil’s center-south sugar production at 41.8 million tons.) Louis Dreyfus said India’s crop is looking better, with a forecast of 30.5 million tons, up from 26 million in 2024/25. India’s weather office said yesterday that monsoon rains are expected to hit the southern coast on May 27, five days earlier than usual, which would be the earliest arrival in at least five years. France’s farm ministry is estimating the nation’s sugar beet plantings at 393,000 hectares this year, up from last month’s estimate of 391,000 hectares but down 4.6% from last year.
In the supply/demand report yesterday, USDA put 2025/26 US sugar production at 9.285 million short tons, down from 9.311 for 2024/25. Beet production fell to 5.180 million from 5.334 million last year, and cane production increased to 4.105 million from 3.977 million last year. Imports are forecast at 2.475 million tons, down from 2.944 million in 2024/25. Deliveries were left unchanged at 12.255 million. This leaves ending stocks at 1.436 million tons, down from 2.032 in 2024/25.
July Sugar is back testing the 100-day moving average today after failing to close above it yesterday. The UNICA report could spark an extension of the rally if it comes in significantly below year ago levels.
COTTON
The cotton market saw a sharp rally yesterday in the wake of the news that US/China trade talks produced a 90-day delay in the retaliatory tariffs, but the market gave up most of its gains as the euphoria eased. Perhaps there is some skepticism whether an agreement will result in more purchases of US cotton, especially with the Brazilian president visiting China this week. The USDA Supply/Demand report had US 2025/26 cotton production above expectations, but exports were better than expected, and this put ending stocks lower than expected and the stocks/use ratio below a year ago. That gave the report a slightly bullish tilt, but overall it had few surprises.
The weekly Crop Progress report showed US cotton plantings continuing fall behind the average pace. As of Sunday, 28% of the US crop was planted, down from 32% a year ago and below the five-year average of 31% for that date. Texas was 27% planted versus a five-year average of 29%. Georgia is behind at 24% versus 28% on average, and Mississippi is way behind at only 25% planted versus 39% on average. Arkansas is catching up, currently 36% planted, up from 13% last week and just shy of the five-year average of 37%.
COCOA
July Cocoa was higher overnight, and it looks poised to test the April highs today. Ivory Coast farmers interviewed by Reuters yesterday said heavy rains are need to compensate for below-average rainfall last week and to fortify the last stage of the April-November mid-crop. They added that sufficient rain in May and June are crucial for crop development in August and September. In recent weeks farmers have been generally positive about crop prospects, so this seems to be a slight change in attitude. World Weather Service said yesterday that satellite and surface weather observations suggested scattered showers and thunderstorms occurred over the weekend from Ivory Coast through Ghana and Benin to portions of Nigeria and Cameroon. The precipitation was most sporadic and light in Nigeria and southern Benin while Ivory Coast and Ghana were wettest. The precipitation intensity varied widely with some areas getting moderate to heavy rain while others only light and sporadic showers. They added that rain will continue fall sporadically through the next week with some areas getting significant rain while others only light amounts. The precipitation will be sufficient in nearly all areas to carry on normal crop development and favorable production potentials. ICE certified stocks increased by 6,226 bags yesterday to 2.119 million, their highest since September 27.
COFFEE
July NY Coffee extended yesterday’s losses overnight to trade to its lowest level since April 22. Brazilian 2025/26 production forecasts have seen revisions higher in recent weeks. On Friday Safras & Mercado raised its the all-coffee production forecast for Brazil to 65.51 million bags, up from 62.45 million in December, crediting better weather conditions in January and February. This was in line with a forecast the group made in mid-April. Conab raised its forecast for Brazilian arabica production to 37 million from 34.7 million estimated in January and its total forecast to 55.7 million from 51.8 million in January. Cecafe reported yesterday that Brazil exported 2.78 million bags of green coffee in April, down 29% from a the same period in 2024. Arabica exports totaled 2.68 million bags, down 17% from a year ago, and robusta exports totaled 103,577, down 85%. The robusta harvest has begun, and the arabica should be starting up soon, if not already. World Weather Service said that a dry and warm pattern should prevail in Brazil’s coffee production for the next ten days. ICE certified stocks increased by 5,735 bags yesterday to 843,903. Stocks pending review increased by 7,331 bags to 14,397, the highest since March 2024.
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