ADMIS News
SUGAR
May sugar was lower overnight but managed to avoid testing support at the 200-day moving average. The UNICA report on Brazil center-south sugar production for the first half of March will be released today. The last report showed that as of March 1, cumulative sugar production for the 2024/25 marketing year was running 5.6% behind a year ago. The new marketing year begins April 1. The region has seen some improvement in rain recently, but more is needed. Reuters quoted sources in the Indian government this week saying the government will not restrict mills from exporting the 1 million metric tons of sugar that have been permitted for the 2024/25 season. Reports of early mill closings earlier and higher domestic sugar prices prompted speculation that exports would come up short of the quota. The government sources said ending stocks for 2025 are expected to total 5.4 million tons, which was the number provided by the Indian Sugar & Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association in a report last week.
COCOA
May Cocoa was lower overnight, as the market continued to consolidate after falling to its lowest level since November last week. The market has received some bullish news items the past couple of weeks that may have stemmed the decline in prices. They have not sparked a recovery rally, perhaps because of uncertainty over demand and the fact that ICE warehouse stocks continue to grow. These included a report this week that Ivory Coast’s Coffee and Cocoa Council is cutting the contract sales limit for the 2025/26 marketing year to 1.3 million metric tons from the 1.7 million of the past couple of years. That came on top of recent forecasts that the 2024/25 mid-crop will be down 40% from last year due to hot and dry conditions earlier in the season. West Africa has seen better rainfall over the past few week. World Weather Service said yesterday that rain will begin to increase late this week from Senegal through Ivory Coast and Ghana with areas to the east into southern Nigeria and Cameroon trending wetter next week. Ghana has seen some widespread coverage over the past 24 hours with some areas seeing moderate to heavy amounts. ICE certified cocoa stocks increased 2,820 bags yesterday to 1.790 million, which is the highest since October 28.
COTTON
May Cotton is in consolidation mode ahead of Monday’s USDA Prospective Plantings report, but the export sales report this morning could provide some excitement. Last week’s report showed net sales of 158,928 bales for the week ending March 13 (old and new crop combined), which was the lowest weekly total since January 2 and a disappointment following several weeks of decent but not great numbers. Cumulative sales for 2024/25 had reached 10.225 million bales, down from 10.707 million at this time last year and below the five-year average of 13.043 million. China cancelled 49,337 bales that week. For the USDA plantings report on Monday, analysts’ poll averages range from slightly above to slightly below the USDA Outlook Forum numbers in February. The Bloomberg survey shows an average trade expectation of 9.9 million acres (range 8.8-10.5 million) versus 10.0 million in the Outlook Forum and 11.2 million in 2024. The Reuters poll has an average guess of 10.189 million acres (range 9.85-10.5). Some traders had suggested that plantings would be lower with prices having fallen to new four-year lows earlier this month. World Weather Service said yesterday that the southwestern US Plains would remain drier than usual for another 30 days and that any rain that reaches West Texas will be brief and light.
COFFEE
May Coffee continues in a consolidative mode, finding support from uncertainty over Brazilian supply but limited by the fact that market already traded to all-time highs last month. Bullish technical traders were disappointed yesterday when the market failed to close a gap from March 6, and the market reversed lower and extended its losses overnight. Reuters reported overnight that supply of robusta beans have tightened in Vietnam and Indonesia, with Vietnamese farmers refraining from selling bean on hopes of higher prices and supplies in Indonesia scarce at the end of the harvest season. World Weather Service reported slightly better rain coverage in Brazilian growing areas than earlier in the week but not enough to indicate a change in trend. They look for showers and thunderstorms to continue periodically through the next week to ten days, but the rainfall will remain mostly light. ICE certified arabica stocks increased by 1,855 bags yesterday to 783,813, which is the highest since March 18. There are 45,475 bags pending review, which is the highest since March 5.
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