ADMIS News
COCOA
World Weather Service says seasonal rains will be delayed another week to ten days in southern Ivory Coast and Ghana, with more frequent rains in Nigeria and Cameroon. Despite the slow arrival, growers interviewed this week in Ivory Coast were mostly upbeat about the upcoming 2025/26 crop’s prospects. A Reuters poll of analysts forecast a global surplus of 200,000 metric tons for the 2025/26 season, up from a surplus of 98,000 tons in 2024/25. Earlier this year ICCO put the global surplus at 142,000 metric tons. The poll also put Ivory Coast’s production is forecast at 1.84 million tons, up from 1.76 million in 2024/25, and Ghana’s at 600,000 tons versus 595,000 in 2024/5. ICE exchange stocks increased 346 bags yesterday to 2.161. This was the first daily increase since August 1.
COTTON
December Cotton found some support overnight after the weekly Crop Progress report showed a slight decline in US crop conditions last week. On the other hand, the crop is still in good condition, and US exports are slow. The Crop Progress report showed 51% of the US cotton crop was rated good/excellent as of August 31, down from 54% the previous week but above the 5-year average for this date at 44%. Crop conditions in Texas are off their peaks from a couple of weeks ago, but they are still well above average, which raises the prospects that USDA will increase its production forecasts in upcoming supply/demand reports. World Weather Service says West Texas rainfall has been sufficient enough to improve crop conditions recently, although more rain is needed in some southern dryland areas. Recent 7-day rain totals varied from 1.00 to 3.00 inches in central parts of West Texas while the northern production areas received 0.12 to 0.80 inch and southern areas received 0.27 to 1.40 inches. The Indian government is making it easier for textile manufacturers to import cotton, in an effort to lower their costs as they face higher tariffs for products they sell to the US. The question is whether they will buy cotton from the India’s trade minister said yesterday that hist nation is in talks with the US on a bilateral trade agreement.
COFFEE
After a 114.20-cent, 41% rally during the month of August, December Coffee may be due for a correction. The market failed to take out the April high during the August rally, perhaps because much of the move was derived from the draining of ICE stocks stemming from the US tariffs on Brazil and not necessarily from overwhelmingly tight global supplies. The Brazilian harvest is nearly complete, and production forecasts have been lowered from where they were in in May, but there has been no “shock” to the market aside from the tariffs. Those tariffs mean more expensive product in the US and an upset of the normal product flows around the world, but those Brazilian supplies will have to find buyers eventually. Despite this, retail prices are climbing in Brazil, as Reuters reported yesterday that coffee roasters 3 Coracoes and Melitta were raising prices 7%-15%. This is perhaps due to the rally in the futures and tight ICE stocks.
SUGAR
October Sugar extended its decline overnight after breaking below a week-long consolidation area yesterday. The market was facing several negatives to start the week, with the International Sugar Organization saying on Friday that it expects the 2025/26 (October-September) supply deficit to narrow to just 231,000 metric tons from a deficit of 4.88 million in 2024/25, the Indian government allowing more ethanol production from cane products, which may have been an indication that they are confident that their sugar supply will be ample this year, and Friday’s UNICA report that showed Brazilian Center South sugar production recovering for the first half of August coming in 16% higher than the same period a year ago. Cumulative production for 2025/26 is now running 4.7% behind last year versus being 7.8% behind at the end of July and is the narrowest the deficit has been since the start of the marketing year in April. The market sold off sharply in the face of a crude oil rally yesterday also suggests the market expects ample cane supply this year.
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