Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are slightly higher. Managed fund managers are expected to adjust positions prior to year end. Stocks are higher. USD is lower. Crude is higher. Gold, silver and copper are higher. GS forecast $5,000 Gold. 5 days until the end. 2026 will bring question about global economy, trade wars, US Supreme Court decision on US tariffs and global tension. Russia bombed Ukraine infrastructure. Normal Brazil rains are expected. S 1/3 Argentina could remain dry.
SOYBEANS
SH is near 10.66. USDA announced 330 mt 25/26 and 66 mt 26/27 mt US soybeans to China. Some estimate China has bought 8.0 mmt of US soybeans vs 12.0 expected. US Dec 4 US soybean export commit is near 23.3 mmt vs 37.1 ly. Dec 18 US soybean export inspections were 14.5 mmt vs 27.0. USDA goal is 44.5 mmt vs 51.2 ly. Trade est US 25/26 soybean carryout closer to 360 mil bu vs USDA 290 due to lower exports. Some look for USDA to increase US 2025 soybean yield slightly in January due to record pod count. EU sunoil higher after on Ukraine sunoil tanker. AgRural est Brazil soybean crop at 180.0 mmt vs 178.5 previous and USDA 175.0 and Conab 177.0.
CORN
CH is near 4.48. US, Brazil and now central EU farmers are reluctant sellers. US Dec 4 US corn export commit is near 45.8 mmt vs 35.1 ly. US export inspections are 21.2 mmt vs 14.4 ly. USDA goal is 86.2 mmt vs 72,6 ly. Trade est US 25/26 corn carryout closer to 2,325 mil bu vs USDA 2,029 due to lower domestic use. Some look for USDA to drop US 2025 corn yield 2 bpa in January. Same group feels USDA needs to drop the yield 4 bpa to push prices above resistance. Russia attacks on US port is slowing Ukraine corn exports and redirecting corn to Europe.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.15. KWH is near 5.21. MWH is near 5.79. Matif futures are quiet as traders take holiday. Dec 4 US wheat export commit is 19.3 mmt vs 15.6 ly. US export inspections are 14.7 mmt vs 12.0 ly. USDA goal is 24.5 mmt vs 22.4 ly. US south plains temps are warmer than normal and could make crop vulnerable to cold spell.
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