Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to lower. There are better rains for west Midwest and east early next week. US Central Bank is expected to drop rates 25 basis points today. US stocks are mixed. USD is higher. Crude is lower. Gold is lower. Asset managers may be looking at lower rates as the key to higher commodity prices. Congress set to fight for new spending bill. Current funding expires Oct 1. House will vote Friday.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 10.44. Key resistance is 10.50. In a case of kick the can, EPA announced a new comment period on plan to reallocate RFS obligations. Dalian soybean and soymeal prices were lower, near 3 month low and below support. Abiove left Brazil soybean crop est at 170.3 mmt and exports at 109.5. Matif protein spread narrowed and lost carries due tighter soymeal supply. Wire services are asking for Sep 1 stocks est and est for old crop. Stocks should be near 330 mil bu and crop could be down 25-50 mil bu. This leaves final exports key to price action.
CORN
CZ is near 4.29. Key resistance is 4.35. US corn futures are defying gravity but have rallied 34 cents from August low. Some look at lower USD, good US exports and dry August as why prices have rallied. US export prices remain competitive vs SA nearby prices. Brazil futures are lower on higher Real. Dalia corn futures were lower and are testing last months lows. There is talk of increase report of aflatoxin in central EU corn crop. Wire services are asking for Sep 1 stocks est and est for old crop. Stocks should be near 1,375 mil bu vs USDA 1,325 and crop could be down 25-50 mil bu. This leaves final exports key to price action.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.33. WZ range 4.90-5.40. KWZ is near 5.22. MWZ is near 5.75. Wheat futures are supported by lower USD. Australia dollar is at 2025 highs and weighing on wheat prices. Lower Argentina peso is offering resistance to Argentina wheat prices. Matif wheat futures held support and Russia prices are slightly higher with talk of higher production offering resistance. Wire services are asking for Sep 1 stocks est. Stocks should be near 2,135 mil bu vs USDA 1,992 last year.
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