Explore Special Offers & White Papers from ADMIS

US Dollar Likely to Give Back Gains


The U.S. dollar index is higher on safe-haven buying.

$100 bill

In the last two months interest rate differential expectations have turned against the greenback.

Lower prices are likely for the greenback today from the currently higher levels.


Stock index futures are  lower due to a deteriorating outlook for economic growth, recent hawkish speeches from Federal Reserve policymakers and following mostly lower Asian equity markets.

Traders remain cautious ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee minutes release on Wednesday, which could provide further clues on the pace of the Fed’s rate hikes.

The October Chicago Federal Reserve national activity index was negative 0.50 when positive 0.17 was expected.

Despite lower prices today, the fundamentals and technicals for stock index futures are improving.


Last week Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins reiterated that more interest rate increases are needed to tame inflation and that her view on how high interest rates will need to go is unaffected by recent economic reports.

The severely inverted yield curve suggests weaker U.S. economic growth lies ahead. Recently the spread between the 2-year and 10-year note yields was at its deepest inversion in over 40 years.

The Treasury will auction two-year and five-year notes today.

The technicals and fundamentals are looking more constructive for the interest rate market futures.

According to financial futures markets currently, there is a 76.0% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will increase its fed funds rate by 50 basis points at the December 14  meeting and a 24.0% probability that the rate will be hiked by 75 basis points.

I will be out of the office on Tuesday and Wednesday.


Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore Special Offers & White Papers from ADMIS

Get Started