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US Dollar Lower

Dollar

CURRENCY FUTURES

The U.S. dollar is lower. Some of the bears on the U.S. dollar are speculating that the Federal Reserve may loosen its approach to inflation, which could happen at its next policy meeting in September.

The U.S. dollar is likely to drift lower from current levels.

The euro currency is higher after a report showed the euro zone second quarter gross domestic product decreased 12.1% on a quarter to quarter basis, as expected, and was down 15.0% year to year as anticipated.

The Australian dollar is higher after the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe said the Australian dollar is not overvalued.

STOCK INDEX FUTURES  

Stock index futures are holding up well despite the stalemate in Washington over a fresh round of economic stimulus.

Traders are awaiting trade talks between senior U.S. and Chinese officials, scheduled for Saturday.

Retail sales in July increased 1.2% when a gain of 2.0% was expected, and retail sales less autos were up 1.9% when an increase of 1.5% was anticipated.

July industrial production increased 3.0% as expected, and July capacity utilization was 70.6%, which compares to the predicted 70.3%.

The 9:00 central time June business inventories report is anticipated to show a 1.2% decline, and the 9:00 August consumer sentiment index is estimated to be 71.9.

The September S&P 500 futures are not very far away from the record high at 3396.50.

The technical picture remains constructive for stock index futures.

INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES

The yield on 10-year Treasury notes fell to 0.691% from 0.714% on Thursday. Yields had increased for five straight trading days, boosted by government debt auctions including a $26 billion sale of 30-year bonds yesterday that was met with weak demand.

Interest rate market futures, especially at the short end of the curve are likely to be supported by ideas that major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, will keep interest rates low for an extended period.

Robert Kaplan of the Federal Reserve will speak at 9:00 central time.

The next Federal Open Market Committee meeting is scheduled for September 16. Financial futures markets are predicting there is a 92% probability that the FOMC will maintain its fed funds target rate at zero to 25 basis points.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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