Written Commentary
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Stock index futures are mixed today after chart breakouts to the upside on Monday.
The final fourth quarter 2024 final gross domestic product growth estimate on an annualized rate was 2.4% as expected, and personal consumption expenditures on an annualized rate were up 4.0%, which compares to the anticipated increase of 4.2%.
Jobless claims is the week ended March 22 were 224,000 when 225,000 were predicted.
The 9:00 central time February pending home sales index is estimated to be up 2.9%.
In the longer term, a more accommodative Federal Open Market Committee will support futures.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Futures are mixed at the front of the yield curve and are lower at the long end of the curve.
There was limited market reaction when the jobless claims and gross domestic product reports were released.
The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note increased about 6 basis points to 4.39% on Thursday, which is the highest level in almost one month.
The U.S. Treasury will auction seven-year notes today.
Federal Reserve speakers today are Thomas Barkin at 3:30 and Susan Collins at 3:30.
Financial futures markets are predicting the FOMC will lower its key interest rate two more times this year with the first reduction at its June policy meeting.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar index is lower.
Interest rate differentials are turning bearish for the greenback.
Futures are testing a two-week uptrend line, which will likely be penetrated on the downside.
Bank lending to households in the euro zone increased by 1.5% year-on-year to €6.956 trillion in February 2025, which is the largest annual increase since June 2023, after a 1.3% gain in the previous period, beating predictions of 1.4%.
Also, lending to companies increased by 2.2%, which is up from a 2% advance in January.
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