Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. US stocks were slightly lower. Crude oil is higher. USD is higher. Precious metals are trying to recover from Mondays sharp losses.
Tuesday CFTC commit of traders and Wednesday weekly export sales should allow USDA to catch up with delayed data.
SOYBEANS
SH is near 10.66. Dalain soybean and soymeal prices were lower. US soybean exports are down 46 pct vs ly and USDA down 13. Trade est US 25/26 soybean carryout closer to 360 mil bu vs USDA 290 due to lower exports. Some report China bought 600 mt US soybean for Apr-May. Brazil and parts of north Argentina weather remains favorable for crops. South Argentina is dry. Brazil soybean harvest starting but more acres will be in 2 weeks. Russia attacked Ukraine sunoil industry trying to increase value of Russia sunoil.
CORN
CH is near 4.42. Trade est US 25/26 corn carryout closer to 2,325 mil bu vs USDA 2,029 due to lower domestic use. Some look for USDA to drop US 2025 corn yield 2 bpa in January. Same group feels USDA needs to drop the yield 4 bpa to push prices above resistance. Trade est US Dec 1 corn stocks at 13,140 mil bu vs 12,075 ly. Sep-Nov exports were record 836 mil bu vs 517 ly. Feed and residual 2,500 mil bu vs 2,357 ly. US corn exports are up 66 pct vs ly and USDA up 12. Seasonally, US exports to date are 25 pct of total. This could imply exports near 100 mmt vs USDA 82.3. Ukraine exports are 4.8 mmt vs 7.0 ly.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.13. WH may be in a 4.70-5.40 range. KWH is near 5.26. MWH is near 5.77. US south splains temps are warmer than normal and could make crop vulnerable to cold spell. US wheat exports are up 22 pct vs ly and USDA up 9. Argentina harvest yields record high. Australia receivables are record high Ukraine exports only .5 mmt but Russia 5 year high at 4.5 mmt.
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