Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. Trade will be watching for May grain deliveries and USDA May 12 report. Crude is near $61. US Dollar is higher. US stocks are higher. Gold is lower. Silver and copper are higher.
WHEAT
WN is near 5.26. KWN is near 5.31. MWN is near 5.95. On Tuesday, funds continued to press futures lower and add to record shorts. Australia and Argentina forecast is dry. Sep Matif is near 15 month low and futures contract spreads continue to widen. EU wheat exports are down 33 pct vs ly. Exports are also down 16 pct. Some are looking for US 2025/26 wheat carryout near 863, others 785. Key is final crop size and exports. US SRW export prices lowest among exporters and first time since Sep, 2020. US HRW also below Russia and Germany. There was 430 KC deliveries and 88 Chicago.
CORN
CN is near 4.69. Funds liquidated longs due to less concern about US 2025 weather. Open interest continues to drop. USDA announced 120 mt US corn to Spain. Dalian corn futures were lower. EU corn imports up 11 pct vs ly. EU corn exports are down 45 pct vs ly. Matif corn futures are at 13 month low. Brazil safrina crop could now be as high as 110 mmt. Others are 1,465 and 2,280. 24/25 key is US exports. There were only 25 corn deliveries.
SOYBEANS
SN is near 10.44. Funds liquidated longs due to less concern about US 2025 weather and lack of China buying US soybeans. Open interest continues to drop. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil were lower. Lower soymeal and soyoil prices is dropping China crush margins. EU oilseed imports up 9 pct vs ly, soymeal up 13 pct and vegoil down 25 pct. Soyoil overbought and seeing profit taking. Some are looking for US 24/25 soybean carryout near 400 vs USDA 374 and 25/26 650. Others are 340 and 585. 24/25 key is US exports. Brazil soybean fob prices lower on reduced China buying. There were only 3 soybean deliveries. Soymeal were 629. Soyoil was 852.
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