Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. US stocks are sharply lower. Crude is sharply lower. Even gold is lower. New US reciprocal tariffs are sending shock waves through markets. Trade will watch countries reaction to US tariffs. Some fear faith in US long term economic potential is fading. US Dollar is sharply lower on talk US aggressive tariffs against allies could erode US Dollar reserve status.
SOYBEANS
SK is near 10.11. US tariffs are bearish soybean demand to China. Japan, Taiwan and S Korea tariffs also bearish. Dalian soybean and soymeal were higher. Soyoil and palmoil were lower. Canada canola oil could be exempt from US tariffs. There is no deal yet on the would allow US soyoil can get preferential treatment for India. Weekly US soybean export sales are estimated at 250-800 mt vs 338 last week. Soymeal sales are est at 100-300 mt vs 165 last week. US announced 135 mt US soymeal to Philippines. 10.00 SK remains support given lower US 2025 soybean acres.
CORN
CK is near 4.52 but up from 4.47 low. Japan, Taiwan and S Korea tariffs could be bearish. Mexico to corn may be exempt from new tariffs. S/E Brazil forecast is dry. US Delta and SC Midwest forecast is wet. US west and central Midwest forecast is warmer and drier. IL, IN and OH rains and US south Midwest and SE rains could slow corn plantings there. Weekly US corn export sales are est at 800-1,600 mt vs 1,039 mt last week. Weekly US ethanol production was down .9 pct vs ly. Stocks were up .7 pct vs ly. Margins remain negative.
WHEAT
WK is lower and near 5.34 but up from 5.25 low. KWK is near 5.62. MWK is near 5.89. Still tough to get WN near 5.50 let alone above. EU weather maps forecast Russia rains. US plains forecast is warm and dry. US SRW crop areas could see heavy rains. US SRW export price is lowest of all origin to buyers. Across the board 10 pct tariff on imports to US could impact US wheat export demand especially to Asian buyers. Australia could pick up Asian wheat demand. Canada wheat may be exempted from new tariffs. Weekly US wheat export sales are est at 100-300 mt vs 100 last week.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
