Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
TGIF. USDA crop report today. USDA could answer many questions but also could add more. Grains are marginally higher. US stocks are lower after Thursdays selloff. Chance of US Dec rate cut dropped to 50 pct. USD is higher. Crude is higher. Gold is lower. Copper is lower on weak China data. Trump could drop coffee, banana and textile tariffs for Guatemala, El Salvador, Argentina and Ecuador. Verizon could lay off 20,000 employees.
SOYBEANS
SF is near 11.49. There were 38 SX soybean deliveries. LDC issued 31. ADM stopped 6. Bunge stopped 28. Some fundamentalist are expressing frustration to higher soybean futures given talk China may not buy US soybeans, US carryout could reach 500 mil bu, weak crush margins and lower Brazil basis. Trade est US soybean crop at 4,266 mil bu vs USDA Sep 4,301. Trade also est US 2025/26 soybean carryout near 304 mil bu vs USDA Sep 300. Range of est is 187-494. Some feel extreme range could suggest a swing of $2 dollars up or down in future prices. Dalian soybean, soymeal were lower but vegoil futures were higher. Soyoil futures awaiting EPA policy on biofuel mandate.
CORN
CH is near 4.55. Corn futures following soybeans. Managed funds continued evening up positions before USDA report. Trade est US corn crop at 16.557 mil bu vs USDA Sep 16,814. Trade also estimates US 2025/26 corn carryout near 2,136 mil bu vs USDA Sep estimate od 2,110. Range of est is 1,944-2,470. Some feel extreme range could suggest a swing of 70 cents up or down in future prices. Weekly US ethanol production was down 3 pct vs ly, stocks were down 1.9 pct vs last week. Margins have turned negative. Dalian corn futures were higher on continued debate over flood related corn crop losses.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.54. KWH is near 5.44. MWH is near 5.84. Trade est US 2025/26 wheat carryout at 867 mil bu vs USDA Sep estimate of 844. World wheat stocks 266.1 mmt vs USDA Sep est of 264.0. Weekly US wheat export sales are est at 250-600 mt. Argentina wheat crop estimated st 24.0 mmt vs USDA 19.5.
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