USDA Data in Focus for Cotton

COTTON

March Cotton was lower early Monday but found support at the 9-day moving average. Friday’s export sales update was supportive to cotton but traders are looking ahead to another update this morning as the USDA works to catch up after the government shutdown put them six weeks behind schedule. Today’s report will cover the week ending October 23. Friday’s report showed net cotton sales for the week ending October 16 at 175,678 bales for the 2025/26 (current) marketing year and 26,840 for 2026/27 for a total of 202,518. This was up from 157,636 the previous week and was the largest since September 11.  Shipments were the highest since July at 159,631 bales versus 57,834 for the same week last year and a five-year average for this week of 129,000. World Weather Inc says favorable harvest weather is likely in California, the US southwestern desert region, and West Texas. Fieldwork in the southeastern states may be disrupted periodically by rain. There is also some potential for partial relief from drought in the southeastern states. Australia’s cotton crop would benefit from rain in western, dryland, production areas where recent hot and dry conditions may have slowed some development. Eastern crop areas are suspected of being in mostly good shape.

SUGAR

March Sugar was sharply lower early Monday but found initial support at the 9-day moving average, as the trade was awaiting the UNICA report on Brazilian center south production for the first half of November, which was to be released during the session. Trade expectations call for a strong harvest/crushing pace for the period. A survey of analysts by S&P Global calls for the cane crush to come in around 18.85 million metric tons, which would be up from 16.41 million from the same period last year (+14.9%). Sugar production is expected at 1.075 million tons, up from 904,000 a year ago (+18.9%), and ethanol production at 1.371 billion liters, up from 1.082 billion last year (+26.7%). Sugar’s share of crush is expected to fall to 41.94% from 43.14% a year ago. If the expectations prove true, it would put cumulative sugar production for 2025/26 up 2% from a year ago. Traders are also awaiting the Commitments of Traders Report for the week ending October 24, which is to be released on Tuesday, December 2. The previous report showed managed money traders were net short to 162,053 contracts of sugar as of October 14, their largest net short since November 2019 and likely a significant source of short-covering. The record net short is 234,839 from September 2019.

COCOA

March Cocoa was near unchanged early Monday, trading in the upper end of Friday’s breakout range. Ivory Coast port arrivals totaled 100,000 metric tons for the week ending November 30, down from 102,000 the previous week but up from 92,000 for the same week last year and above the five-year average of 87,000. Cumulative arrivals since the 2025/26 marketing year began in October have reached 718,000 tons, down from 735,000 at this point last year and a five-year average of 738,000. This was the fourth straight week arrivals were above 100,000 and the fifth straight they were above a year ago. On Friday, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) released its latest estimates on the global cocoa supply/demand balance, and it showed 2024/25 world output at 4.698 million metric tons, down from a previous estimate of 4.840 million but up 7.6% from 2023/24. World grindings were revised to 4.602 million tons, down from a previous estimate of 4.650 million. Ending stocks were revised to 1.324 million tons, up from 1.275 million in 2023/24. This leaves a global surplus of 49,000 tons, the first surplus since 2020/21.

COFFEE

March Coffee was lower early Monday but found initial support at the 50-day moving average. Weather conditions remain favorable in Brazilian coffee areas, but Vietnam, Indonesia and other parts of Southeast Asia continue to face bouts of flooding  that threaten crops and slow harvest pace for robusta beans. Word Weather Inc. says the impacts have been mostly isolated. ICE certified arabica stocks fell 1,980 bags on Friday to 406,959. After declining steadily for months, ICE stocks have been chopping back and forth recently, and they increased by 4,890 bags last week. Tropical storm Koto is expected to dissipate over open water in the South China Sea, but the remnant low pressure center will bring rain to the lower central coast of Vietnam later this week and help generate scattered showers and thunderstorms in the Central Highlands during mid-to late week. Brazil is expecting a boost in rainfall during mid-week this week areas from Cerrado Mineiro and northern Sul de Minas into Bahia. Sufficient rain is expected during the next ten days to maintain a favorable environment for coffee development.

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