Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains higher. US stocks are lower. US dollar is higher. Crude is unch. Gold, silver, copper, cocoa, sugar and cotton are lower.
2 big stories after Tuesday close that is impacting soybean, soymeal and soyoil futures. First, USDA dropped US 2023 soybean crop rating to 54 pct G/E vs 59 last week. IL was down 14 pct to 33 G/E. ND and SD were down 11 pct. IA was down 10 pct. MI was lowest rated at only 23 pct G/E. IL topsoil if 85 pct short to very short and above 2012 this date. MI is 89, MO 73, NE 74, WI 62, IA 64. BOU is down 3.64 after unofficial EPA mandate was a 6 pct increase versus double digit needed to satisfy growing investment and capacity. World vegoil prices are lower following soyoil. SN tested 14.96 and SX 13.63. Key is early next weeks US Midwest weather. Should be dry and warm until then. Look for next weeks crop rating to also decline. Brazil export prices remain below US and reduces new demand for US soybean export
USDA dropped US 2023 corn crop rating to 55 pct G/E vs 61 last week. IL was down 12 pct to 36 G/E. IL is 15 pct of US crop. MI, MO, PA and WI ratings dropped below 50 pct G/E. CN is near 6.59 and CZ 6.14. Key is early next weeks US Midwest weather. Should be dry and warm until then. Look for next weeks crop rating to also decline. Brazil export prices remain below US and reduces new demand for US corn export. EU corn prices lower on talk of large Brazil imports.
USDA dropped US 2023 spring wheat crop rating to 51 pct G/E vs 60 last week. US winter wheat harvest is 15 pct vs 23 ly. Early yields are a little better than expected. Canada and Russia spring wheat areas are dry. N EU could see rain. Russia export price is near $230 and will trade below. France is $258, Germany $271, US HRW $347. WU is near 7.24, 200 DMA is near 7.66. KWU is near 8.53, 200 DMA is near 8.62. MWU is near 8.65, 200 DMA is near 8.82. Weak demand for US export suggest wheat futures are a follower to corn with Managed funds short.
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