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USDA Left US Corn Balance Sheets Unch

MORNING AG OUTLOOK

Grains are mixed. SN is down. CN is up. WN is up. KWN is up. MWN is up. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. IEA projects higher World supply by 2029. Gold is lower. Headlines suggest US Fed poured cold water on rate cut hopes.

 

SN is near 11.74. SN-SX spread is +30. US Midwest could see scattered rains then turns warm and dry for 10 days. USDA did announce 106 Mt US soybeans to China crusher. USDA dropped US 2023/24 crush 10 mil bu which increased carryout 10. One private group est US 2023/24 carryout 400 mil bu vs USDA 350, 2024/25 510 vs USDA 455. This due to lower demand est. Another group raised fear of even higher 2024/25 carryout if demand does not improve and US crop is normal. Dalian soybean and soymeal prices were lower, vegoils higher. USDA still est China corn imports at 105 mmt vs China est of 96 and 2024/25 imports at 109 mmt vs China est of 94. CONAB Brazil crop update today. Last est 147 mmt vs USDA 153. Weekly US soybean export sales are est at 150-550 mt vs 189 last week

 

ground corn

 

CN is near 4.56. CN-CU spread narrowed into -2. US Midwest could see scattered rains then turns warm. USDA left US corn balance sheets unchanged. One group est US 2023/24 at 1,946 and 2024/25 2,266, USDA left Brazil crop at 122. CONAB today. Some private est closer to 114. Brazil corn futures are higher and testing May highs. BAGE today. Some est Argentina corn crop at 42 mmt vs USDA 53. USDA est China 2 year corn imports at 46 mmt vs China est of 32.5. Weekly US ethanol production dropped for first in months. Stocks were higher than last week. Weekly US corn export sales are est at 700-1,250 mt vs 1,180 last week.

 

WN is near 6.20. WN has dropped from a high on May 28 near 7.20 to a recent low near 6.05. USDA suggest higher US HRW supplies and tighter SRW. Some feel once US WW harvest is near 50 pct, there is a chance for a price rally due to lower World supply. USDA est Russia wheat crop at 83 mmt, Some are below 80. EU crop est could be too high. There is talk that USDA est of India crop could 10 pct too high and within months India could import 2 mmt of wheat. Weekly US wheat export sales are est at 250-650 mt vs 616 last week. Trade will keep one eye on US sales to see if buyers switch from Black Sea to US and the other eye on new technical signals.

 

 

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