Written Commentary
USDA SMALL GRAINS SUMMARY
Report Highlights:
Hard to find anything supportive in today’s USDA data. Corn is trading down near its daily limit of $.30 as production and stocks were both well above expectations. Prices will need to find a level that stimulates better demand in a hurry. USDA data for soybeans and wheat were neutral to bearis, both trading $.15-$.25 lower feeling added pressure from sharp declines in corn.
Corn:
- 2025/26 Feed Use cut 231 mil. bu. to get stocks up to 2.095 bil.
- 2026 Production raised 234 mil. to 16.034 bil. Nearly 315 mil. above expectations
- Ave US Yield raised to 181.2 bpa, the 2nd highest ever
- 2026/27 ending stocks rose 282 mil. bu. to 1.849 bil., 180 mil. above expectations
- 2026/27 demand raised 125 mil. to 16.305 bil. with feed and ethanol use of 50 mil. each, exports up 25 mil.
- The Ave. Farm Price was cut $.10 to $4.70 bu.
- Global stocks up over 8 mmt to 280 mmt, well above expectations
- Brazil saw another 2 mmt of exports shifted to domestic usage for ethanol production
- China’s 2026/27 corn imports held steady at 5 mmt
Soybeans:
- 2025/26 US crush and export were lowered while residual use up 20 mil. to get stocks down to 315 mil.
- 2026 Production raised 27 mil. to 4.562 bil. vs. expectations of unchanged
- Ave US Yield raised to 53.1 bpa, a record high
- 2026/27 ending stocks rose 5 mil. bu. to 315 mil., 10 mil. above expectations
- 2026/27 demand raised 12 mil. to 4.587 bil. with exports up 10 mil.
- The Ave. Farm Price was left unchanged at $12 bu.
- Global stocks little changed at 124 mmt, slightly above expectations
- No changes to S. American production while China import also unchanged at 115 mmt
Wheat:
- 2026/27 ending stocks rose 23 mil. bu. to 740 mil., 20 mil. above expectations
- Exports were cut 25 mil., imports up 5 mil.
- By class stock adjustments were HRW +14 mil., White +12 mil., SRW +6 mil. while HRS -8 mil.
- Ave. Farm Priced lowered $.10 to $6.30 bu.
- Global stocks little changed at 276 mmt, slightly below expectations
- Russian exports cut 3 mmt to 40 mmt, partially offset by Argentina and Canada both up .5 mmt
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