USDA Report Day. Grains Are Mixed.
USDA Report Day
Grains are mixed. SU is unchanged and near 8.70. CU is unchanged and near 3.12. WU is down 4 cents and near 4.91. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold is lower but has had a wild ride testing a low near 1,874 before trading back to near 1,956. US/China trade talks are August 15.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled down 6 yuan in soybeans, down 1 in Corn, down 10 in Soymeal, down 72 in Soyoil, and down 120 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were down 10 ringgit at 2,633 (basis October) at midsession on weaker rival oils.
Last evening’s GFS model run showed a relatively strong trough of low pressure dig down into the Great Lakes region Aug. 18 – 21 causing notably below average temperatures across the Corn Belt, Delta, and part of the southeastern states. This cool air mass will then gradually diminish after Aug. 21. The 11 to 16 day for the Midwest has below average precip and temps by both models with the GFS model by the end of the period turning more towards ridging which would provide above average temps and limited rains.
There is talk that yesterday China bought 5 US and 2 Brazil new crop soybean cargoes. CONAB estimated Brazil soybean crop near 121 mmt versus USDA 126. World vegoil prices continue to trade lower. Argentina remains dry. Higher World supply should weigh on prices.
CONAB estimated their corn crop near 102 mmt versus 101 previous. Brazil supplies could soon reduce demand for US exports. Trade trying to estimate Iowa corn damage due to recent storm. China announced they will not import US ethanol. Higher World supply should weigh on prices.
World wheat prices continue to fall led by Australia. USDA should increase World wheat production and end stocks on today report. Higher World supply should weigh on prices
USDA is expected to estimate US 2020 corn crop near 15,174 versus 13,617 last year.
USDA is expected to estimate US 2020 soybean crop near 4,254 versus 3,552 last year.
USDA is expected to estimate US 2020 wheat crop near 1,832 versus 1,920 last year
USDA is expected to estimate US 2020/21 corn carryout near 2,800 versus 2,248 last year.
USDA is expected to estimate US 2020/21 soybean carryout near 524 versus 620 last year.
USDA is expected to estimate US 2020/21 wheat carryout near 946 versus 1,044 last year
USDA is expected to estimate World 2020/21 corn carryout near 320.3 mmt versus 311.9 last year.
USDA is expected to estimate World 2020/21 soybean carryout near 97.5 mmt versus 99.6 last year.
USDA is expected to estimate World 2020/21 wheat carryout near 313.8 mmt versus 297.1 last year
On Tuesday, Managed funds were net buyers of 4,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 4,000 Corn; bought 1,000 Soybeans; were net even in Soymeal, and; net sold 2,000 lots of Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net short 9,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 167,000 Corn; net long 40,000 Soybeans; net short 23,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 44,000 Soyoil.
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