Written Commentary
USDA WASDE CROP PRODUCTION REPORT
Relative to pre-report expectations no major shocks in today’s USDA data. I’d view today’s reports as neutral for corn, neutral to bearish for both soybeans and wheat.
Back to focusing on US harvest weather, Chinese demand along with speculative flows.
Corn:
- 2025/26 stocks down 22 mil. bu. to 1.922 bil. on higher exports and higher imports, in line with expectations
- 2026 production cut 213 mil. bu. to 15.80 bil. vs. expectations of 15.785 bil.
- Harvested acres were down 86k to 88.506 mil. while the average yield was trimmed 2.2 bpa to 178.5
- 2026/27 stocks were lowered 86 mil. to 1.567 bil., 40 mil. above expectations
- 2026/27 Ave. Farm Price up $.30 bu. to $4.80
- Global stocks cut 2.5 mmt to 272, slightly above expectations
- Brazil’s 2025/26 production raised another 1 mmt to 141 mmt
- Brazil’s 2026/27 exports cut 1 mmt while usage for ethanol up 2 mmt
Soybeans:
- 2025/26 stocks unchanged at 325 mil. bu. vs. expectations of 317 mil.
- 2026 production was raised 16 mil. bu. to 4.535 bil. vs. expectations of 4.50 bil.
- Harvested acres were down 100k to 88.881 mil. while the average yield was raised .1 bpa to 52.8
- 2026/27 stocks were lowered 10 mil. to 310 mil., 10 mil. above expectations
- 2026/27 Ave. Farm Price up $.60 bu. to $12.00
- Global stocks were little changed at 124 mmt
- No changes to South American production or Chinese imports
Wheat:
- 2026/27 stocks unchanged at 717 mil. bu. in line with expectations
- HRW stocks were up 15 mil, SRW up 5 mil. white wheat down 20, all on export changes
- Ave. US Farm Price up $.20 to $6.40 bu.
- World stocks were 3 mmt to 276 mmt vs expectations for no change
- Australian production up 3 mmt , Canada up 1 mmt, Argentina up .5 mmt, Ukraine up .6 mmt
- Russian exports down 3 mmt, Ukraine down 1 mmt nearly offset by Canada and Australia both up 1.5 mmt
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