Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. US stocks are higher. USD is lower. Crude is higher. Increase Russia attacks on Ukraine could increase chances for more sanctions against Russia. Base metals are higher. US Midwest forecast is mostly dry but cool.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 10.28. US soybean export sales were 818 mt. Total old crop commit is near 50.8 mmt vs 45.3 ly. S&P Global est US soybean yield at 53.8 vs USDA 53.6. Next key input is USDA Sep 12 report. One group est US 24/25 soybean carryout at 367 mil bu vs USDA 330. This due to lower residual. Same group est US 25/26 soybean carryout at 472 mil bu vs USDA 290. This due to higher crop and lower exports. They lowered Brazil 24/25 soybean crop 1 mmt to 170.5.
CORN
CZ is near 4.17 on decline in volume and slight increase in open interest. US corn export sales were 2,117 mt. Total old crop commit is near 70.1 mmt vs 50.8 ly. New crop sales are 20.8 mmt. Next key input is USDA Sep 12 report. S&P Global est US corn yield at 189.1 bu per acre vs USDA 188.8. Same group est US 25/26 corn carryout at 1,421 mil bu vs USDA 1,305. This due to lower feed and residual. Same group est US 25/26 corn carryout at 2,464 mil bu vs USDA 2,117. This due to lower exports. They increased Brazil 25/26 corn crop 1.5 mmt to 139.0 due to increase acres. They also increase Argentina 25/26 corn crop 2 mmt to 58.0 also due to increase acres.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.19. WZ range 5.00-5.50. KWZ is near 5.06. MWZ is near 5.65. Russia 12.5 pro lower and below $300 for first time since July. US wheat export sales were 313 mt. Total commit is 12.4 mmt vs 10.1 ly. Next key input is 2026 south hemisphere crops and Russia exports and export price. S&P Global increase Argentina wheat crop 1.5 mmt to 22.0 due to increase yield. They increased EU 25/26 wheat crop 1.3 mmt to 139.0 due to higher yields.
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