Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are slightly higher. US stock are higher after positive Nvidia sales. USD is slightly lower. Crude is higher. Gold is lower. Trade focusing on non-farm payroll data. US approved deal to sell AI chips to Middle East. Oct Fed minutes showed deeper split on rate action. USDA will soon announce details of payments to US farmers. South America weather is mostly favorable for crops.
CFTC Sep 30 report suggested funds short 92,000 corn and covered 2,900 Chicago wheat.
SOYBEANS
SF is near 11.38. There were no SX soybean deliveries. USDA announced 330 US soybeans sold to China. Some estimate total sales near 2.0 mmt and final sales close to 3.0 mmt vs US/China deal of buying 12.0. Some feel this is more political than economic with China paying $1.05-$1.15 higher than Brazil. Weekly US soybean export sales are est at 600-1,600 mt. USDA still slowly updating past sales. Brazil rains are moving into dry C and NE crop areas. Safras est Brazil 25/26 soybean crop at 178.7 mmt vs previous est of 180.9. Soyoil prices lower on lack of positive biofuel news. Brazil delayed for another year decision on EUDR.
CORN
CH is near 4.42. Corn futures followed lower soybean and soymeal. Brazil corn prices were lower due to higher Real. North Brazil export prices now below US gulf. Dalian corn futures were lower. S Korea corn purchase prices was highest since April. Weekly US corn export sales are est at 1,400-2,500 mt. USDA still slowly updating past sales. US weekly ethanol production was down 1.7 pct vs ly. Stocks were down 1,4 pct vs ly. Margis remain negative.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.53. KWH is near 5.34. MWH is near 5.85. WH support 5.40. Argentina wheat futures are making new lows. BAGE est Argentina harvest near 17 pct with crop est at 24 mmt. Sep exports 855 mt, decade high and vs 240 ly. Rains are forecast for US HRW and SRW crop areas. Weekly US wheat export sales are est at 350-600 mt. USDA still slowly updating past sales.
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