COCOA
While demand has improved from levels seen last year, it has not been strong enough yet to fully work down West African cocoa built up during the COVID pandemic. With production running ahead of last season’s pace into the early West African harvest, cocoa prices have fallen back on the defensive.
COFFEE
Coffee prices continue to see volatile trading action this month and have been unable to extend their second quarter upmove. While the global supply outlook remains bullish, coffee is looking more vulnerable to a near-term pullback.
COTTON
December cotton closed lower on Monday after spending the day inside Friday’s breakout range. The dollar was down for a second session in a row, which is supportive to US cotton exports. The weekly crop updates showed 46% of the crop was rated good/excellent (G/E), up from 43% the previous week and a year ago but below the 10year average of 49%. Poor/very poor fell to 15% versus 19% the previous week.
SUGAR
With a bullish longer-term supply outlook, sugar should find solid support on set-backs. Crude oil prices fell from new multi-year highs at the critical $70 level all the way into negative territory, which put carryover pressure on the sugar market as an extended pullback could weaken Brazilian domestic ethanol demand.
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