Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. Trade will be watching for May grain deliveries and USDA May 12 report. Crude is near $62. US Dollar is higher. US stocks are mixed but off season low. Gold, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are lower. Trump announced potential trade deals with India, Japan and South Korea.
SOYBEANS
SN is near 10.54. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil were lower. Some feel favorable US corn planting weather could increase final US corn acres and lower soybean. Still, without a US summer weather problem SX has key resistance near 10.50-10.75. Soyoil futures rallied to near 50 cents on talk of lower India tariffs and India opening import market to US soyoil. This is helping board crush margins. Some estimate US soybean plantings near 18-20 pct. Interesting debate concerning USDA May supply and demand report. Some are looking for US 24/25 soybean carryout near 400 vs USDA 374 and 25/26 650.Others are 340 and 585. 24/25 key is US exports.
CORN
CN is near 4.81. CN-CZ is near +30. Dalian corn futures were higher on talk of drier NE China weather. South US and east rains could slow plantings there. This year, favorable US Midwest weather could also increase final corn acres. Brazil rains is increasing talk of higher safrina crop production. Interesting debate concerning USDA May supply and demand report.
WHEAT
WN is near 5.36. KWN is near 5.41. MWN is near 6.00. US south and east rains could stress US SRW crop. US plains rains are negative. Russia forecast is for scattered light rains. Some feel higher crops is Iraq, Iran, Pakistan and Turkey could lower import demand there. USDA May supply and demand report will be May 12. Some are looking for US 2025/26 wheat carryout near 863, others 785. Key is final crop size and exports.
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