ADMIS News
COCOA
July Cocoa was lower early Friday as trader concerns over El Nino appear to have eased as there appears to be enough moisture in west Africa to support production despite reports earlier in the week that Ivory Coast was starting to slow sales for the new crop. World Weather Inc expects another week of favorable conditions for the crop’s development. Regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms will occur across the region and all areas will see multiple rounds of rain during the period. Light to moderate rain will result most often. El Nino looms as a possible threat late in the third quarter and into the fourth. In the meantime, moisture levels in west Africa need to be closely watched.
COFFEE
July Coffee extended this week’s selloff on Friday and traded to its lowest level since November 2024. Expectations for a strong harvest in Brazil have weighed on the market this week, and the harvest is advancing. The USDA this week forecast Brazil’s 2026/27 arabica production at 47.5 million bags, up 25% from 2025/26 and the highest since 2020/21. May, CONAB put Brazil’s arabica production at 45.8 million bags, +28% from the previous year, and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) came out with a forecast of 44 million bags (+20%). These agencies use different methodologies and that their estimates are consistently below USDA’s, but they all show gains of 20%-28%. ICE certified arabica stocks fell 1,777 bags on Thursday to 426,063, their lowest since February 6. Cooxupe, Brazil’s largest coffee co-operative, said on Wednesday that its farmers had harvested 8.9% of their 2026 crop as of May 29, up from the 6.9% reported at the same time last year. Rabobank said in a quarterly report that it expects a global surplus of 9.5 million bags in the 2026/27 season, with 5.9 million consisting of arabica beans. ICE certified Arabica stocks fell 1,777 bags on Thursday to 426,063, their lowest since February 6.
COTTON
December Cotton fell to its lowest level since April 15 early Friday but bounce off its low back to unchanged on the day. The weather has improved in West Texas, but World Weather Inc. has stressed that more is needed. The US Drought Monitor indicated that an area representing roughly 87% of US cotton production was within an area experiencing drought as of June 2, an improvement on 94% the previous week and 98% on May 5. A year ago that number was only 6%. World Weather Inc said rain during the past week marginally bolstered soil moisture and may have improved short-term establishment conditions. There is still a need for much more rain to completely break the drought and support ideal long-term production potentials. USDA cotton export sales for the week ending May 28 came in at 185,268 bales for the 2025/26 (current) marketing year and 77,145 for 2026/27 for a total of 262,413. This was down from 265,663 the previous week but above the four-week moving average of around 216,000. Cumulative sales for 2025/26 have reached 100% of the USDA forecast versus a five-year average of 109% for this point in the marketing year.
SUGAR
July Sugar was near unchanged early Friday as it balanced expectations for lower production out of Brazil against the surprisingly strong production so far this marketing year. A recent survey by S&P Global Energy has an average expectation for Brazil center-south sugar production for the first half of May at 2.08 million metric tons, which would be down 14% from the same period last year. This would be in sharp contrast to last week’s UNICA update for the second half of April, when production was more than double last year. First-half May cane crush is expected to be around 42.45 million tons, down 0.2% from last year, with total ethanol output (cane and corn-based) projected at 2.13 billion liters, up 19.7%. El Nino is expected to reduce rainfall in India, but its effects may not be felt as strongly in the cane areas. Thailand could be vulnerable. Indonesia, too.
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