ADMIS News
COCOA
December Cocoa extended yesterday’s selloff overnight and was approaching key support at the July low, as the recent arrival of rain in west Africa has improved the outlook for the upcoming crop. Ivory Coast farmers interviewed by Reuters said the recent rains are expected to bolster the main crop, with strong output likely in the first three months of the season. Growers across key regions welcomed the downpours, saying they should help cocoa trees yield well and allow pods to ripe in good conditions. Some farmers in southern areas cautioned that more sunshine is needed to prevent mold on early-harvested beans. Cooperative managers said many farmers were stockpiling beans while awaiting the new guaranteed farmgate price before selling, which they expect to be set well above the current 2,200 CFA francs per kg. The government is due to announce the new price in late September or early October. Ivory Coast port arrivals totaled 5,000 metric tons for the week ending September 21, down from 7,000 the previous week and 21,000 at this time a year ago. Cumulative arrivals for 2024/25 have reached 1.691 million tons, down from 1.754 million at this time last year and the lowest for this point in the season in at least six years. The chairman of Ecuador’s cocoa exporters association said Monday that the nation is on course to produce more than 650,000 metric tons of cocoa in the 2025/26 season and could surpass Ghana as the world’s second largest grower.
COFFEE
After an attempt at a recovery yesterday, December Coffee was slightly lower overnight. The main coffee growing areas in Brazil are starting to see rains return, but only tentatively. World Weather Inc says net drying is expected from the end of this week into early next week and that daily rainfall will vary from a trace to 6 millimeters with a few totals to 10. Growers may relax a bit once the rains arrived. The main coffee growing areas in Vietnam ae expected see above average rainfall over the next week, due to Super Typhoon Ragasa. World Weather Inc. says daily showers and thunderstorms are likely in the Central Highlands and Quang Tri through the coming ten days which should be favorable to cherry development. Most of the flooding rain in northern Vietnam should end early in the weekend if the storm moves along today’s predicted path. Too much rain could damage the crop. ICE certified stocks fell 10,884 bags yesterday to 643,341, their lowest level since April 22, 2024. A resolution to the 50% tariff in Brazilian coffee may still be long way off, as legislation exempting coffee has yet to be introduced. A Bloomberg story pointed out that the full effect of the tariff on has yet to be realized in consumer prices.
COTTON
The weekly Crop Progress report showed a deterioration in the US cotton crop last week, but it was still above average. Texas also declined slightly but it remained well above average, which suggests there is potential for USDA to ultimately raise its forecast for this year’s production. The progress report showed 47% of the US crop was rated good/excellent as of September 21, down from 52% the previous week but up from 37% a year ago and above the five-year average for this date at 42%. Texas was 41% G/E, down from 47% last week but up from 23% a year ago and above the five-year average at 27%. Mississippi was 39% G/E, down from 47% last week and 60% on average. Texas is the only state in the top five that is above average. The report also showed 12% of the US crop was harvested, right on the average. Texas was 23% harvested versus an average of 20%. The Delta could see some needed rain this week, but it may be getting too late. Mississippi has 86% of the crop with bolls open, and too much rain could damage the fibers unless it is followed by sunny weather. The bulls need to see an improvement in the export sales pace.
SUGAR
March Sugar fell to a new contract low overnight as the market is looking at strong production from the world’s largest producers this season. Ample monsoon rains have set the Thai and Indian crops up for good cane production, and the recent reports out of Brazil show their output has recovered from an initial poor start and is running jus t 0.5% behind a year ago.
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