ADMIS News
COTTON
July Cotton was sharply lower overnight after trading to its highest level since February 19 on Friday. The dollar managed to bounce off three-year lows last week, and this may have undercut demand expectations. Last week there were reports that China was considering exempting some US imports from its 125% tariffs, and President Trump and the USDA Ag Secretary have indicated that trade talks with China were underway. Beijing has denied that, and the US Treasury Secretary over the weekend did would not confirm talks were going on. China has reduced its purchases of US cotton in recent years, with Vietnam and Pakistan becoming the biggest players. Planting conditions in West Texas are improving, according to World Weather Service, and more beneficial rainfall is expected over the coming week. Excess soil moisture in parts of the Delta that will limit planting progress there. The weekly crop monitor showed only 21% of US cotton production was in an area experiencing drought as of April 22 down from as high at 38% in early March.
COFFEE
July Coffee is back in the vicinity of the February highs on expectations that the Brazilian arabica crop will be insufficient to relieve tight global supplies. The market is also relieved from a demand perspective after the shock of across the board tariffs earlier this month. Last week Rabobank forecast Brazil’s coffee production at 62.8 million bags, down 6.4% from last year and down from a Safras & Mercado forecast for 65-66 million the previous week. Also last week, Nestle commented that prices increase in the coffee and cocoa-related categories had been implement with “limited customer disruption,” and Commerzbank also said price increases had not appeared (yet) to have affected demand. World Weather Service notes that coffee production areas in Brazil have seen periodic rain the past few weeks, with some more significant events last week. Drier weather is expected to return as seasonal rains wind down.
COCOA
The cocoa market has been buoyed over the past week by better than expected grind data that suggested demand had not been as damaged by high prices as feared. However weather conditions have improved in West Africa with the arrival of the rainy season, and this may improve prospects for the mid-crop. World Weather Service said that the rain over the weekend should have been enough to boost soil moisture. More showers and thunderstorms are expected across the region. The mid-crop harvest is expected to begin in earnest next months.
SUGAR
July Sugar sold off sharply overnight to its lowest level since April 22. The market’s failure to push through the 100-day moving average and other technical resistance points likely sparked a wave of selling. Last week, the market received some supportive news from a member of the Indian Sugar & Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) who said that his nation is likely to export only 600,000-700,000 metric tons of sugar in 2024/25, short of a government quota of 1 million tons. However, this only confirmed previous expectations. Also last week, the USDA attaché forecast Brazil’s 2025/26 sugar production at 44.7 million metric tons, up from 43.7 million for 2024/25 and 41.0 million in 2023/24. Ukraine agriculture ministry said on Friday that farmers had also sown 228,500 hectares of sugar beet as of April 24, down 9.7% from 2024, but that was above a forecast of 210,000 made by a representative of the nation’s sugar union earlier in the week. The UNICA report on Brazilian Center-South sugar production for the first half of April should be out this week. This will be the first official report for 2025/26. The USDA attaché report indicated that the harvest will likely get off to a slower start than last year because there is less leftover cane in the field than there was a year ago.
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