ADMIS News
COTTON
July Cotton was slightly lower overnight but is still respecting the low that came in the wake of the tariff announcements. The US Drought Monitor last week showed drought areas have shrunk to approximately 21% of US cotton production, with West Texas and the Panhandle improving from “moderate drought” to “abnormally dry.” In the supply/demand report last week, US 2024/25 ending stocks were increased to 5.00 million bales from 4.90 million last month due to a decline in exports. World ending stocks were increased by 530,000 bales despite a drop in production, due to lower demand. US cotton sales export sales for 2024/25 have reached 103% of the USDA forecast, which is in line with the five-year average for this point in the marketing year. Vietnam has the most commitments for the 2024/25 marketing year at 2.339 million bales, followed by Pakistan at 2.208 million, Turkey at 1.523 million, and China at 706,000. The second Crop Progress report of the season will be released this afternoon. Last week’s report showed 4% of the US crop had been planted as of April 6 versus 5% a year prior and a five-year average of 4%. Texas was 6% planted versus 8% in 2024 and an average of 10%.
SUGAR
The UNICA report on Brazil Center-South sugar production for the second half of March will be released today. As of the first half of March, cumulative sugar production for 2024/25 had reached 39.983 million metric tons, which was down 5.34% from 2023/24. Cane crushing was down 4.94%. This report will be the final for the 2024/25 marketing year. The new marketing year officially began April 1. Traders may be anxious to see if there was a bump up in production in the second half of March. Uncertain demand driven by an uncertain global economic outlook remain a concern. Higher crude oil prices overnight lent support.
COCOA
July Cocoa is lower this morning, perhaps because Ivory Coast arrivals recovered this week after a steep decline last week and perhaps because of better weather in West Africa. Arrivals are estimated at 15,000 metric tons for the week ended April 13, up from 1,500 the previous week and 13,000 a year ago. Cumulative arrivals for the 2024/25 marketing year (through September) have reached 1.457 million tons, up from 1.317 million a year ago but below the five-year average of 1.671 million. The weather forecast for West Africa appears favorable. World Weather Service says that satellite and surface observations indicated that much of Ivory Coast and parts of Nigeria saw light or moderate rainfall over the weekend, with official totals in Ivory Coast varying by as much as 22 millimeters. An erratic rainfall pattern is expected to dominate areas from Ivory Coast to Cameroon and Nigeria during the next week to ten days, with most crop areas getting rain eventually. Much of it will be light, but it should be beneficial to all production areas. ICE certified stocks increased 2,815 bags on Friday to 1.882 million, the highest since October 21. Stocks increased 32,099 last week.
COFFEE
The coffee market appears to have found support after a spike lower last week, but better rainfall in the forecast for Brazil and ongoing demand concerns could limit the gains. The market broke below a two-month consolidation pattern last week, which suggests it may have put in at top when it reached all-time highs in February. New tariffs coming on top of all-time high prices will push retail prices higher in the US, the world’s largest consuming country, and this could pressure demand. World Weather Service said that it was mostly dry in Brazilian coffee areas over the weekend, and that patten is expected to continue today. Showers and thunderstorms could come in tomorrow to Friday and linger into next week. Welcome rain fell in portions of Ivory Coast, Benin, Vietnam and Indonesia over the weekend. ICE certified stocks fell 1,000 bags on Friday to 784,559. Stocks increased 13,545 last week.
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