Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. US Dollar is lower. US stocks are mixed. Crude is lower. Gold is higher. US President announced peace talks with Ukraine Russia. Some estimate Ukraine reconstruction could cost EU countries 3 trillion dollars. US inflation rose 3 pct in January.
SOYBEANS
SH is near 10.28. SH is back near 10.20 support on increase volume and open interest. Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil and palmoil were lower. Soybean futures dropped Wednesday on talk of increase Brazil harvest, rains in Argentina and talk China bought 5-6 Argentina soybean cargoes. CONAB est Brazil soybean harvest 15 pct vs 21 ly. Slow harvest is offering support to Brazil soybean premiums. ABIOVE est Brazil soybean crop at 171.7 mmt. Rosario est Argentina crop at 47.5 mmt vs BAGE 49.6 and USDA 49.0. Weekly US soybean export sales are est at 300-800 mr vs 387 last week.
CORN
CH is near 4.88. CH rallied to 4.92 on increase volume and open interest. CH remains sideways between 4.80-5.00 and near 20 DMA. CH rallied despite higher US inflation. Crude is lower on talk of US and Russia Ukraine peace talks. Slow Brazil harvest and lower Argentina crop est is helping outlook for US corn exports. Rosario estimated Argentina corn crop at 46.0 mmt vs 50 last year and USDA 50.0. BAGE est is near 49.0. China corn future are up to near 6 month highs. Weekly US corn export sales are est at 800-1,700 mt vs 1,477 last week.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.78. KWH is near 5.96. MWH is near 6.17. WH is above 100 DMA in increase volume and drop in open interest. World 2025 weather uncertainty could be offering support. Ukraine and Russia weather is dry. Russia temps turn colder next week. US plains are dry with colder temps newt week. India is warm and dry. Most doubt US crop is a concern with snow cover. S Korea paid a higher prices for feed wheat than Algeria paid for Milling wheat. USDA dropped China demand for wheat, corn and soyoil 22 mmt, Weekly US wheat export sales are est at 200-600 mt vs 438 last week.
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