Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SU is up 6 cents and near 14.38. SMU is near 430.6. BOU is near 64.51. CU is up 5 cents and near 5.51. WU is up 10 cents and near 7.38. KWU is up 3cents and near 8.80. MWU is up 15 cents and near 9.12. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher and near $75. US Dollar index is near April, 2022 lows while commodity index is up 7 pct from March.
Soybean futures are higher but an inside day to Wednesday range of 14.12-14.51. SMU also in yesterdays range of 424-437. BOU back to near yesterday high of 64.82. Dalian soymeal futures are $100 above June lows. US Argentina Ag attache estimated Argentina soybean crop near 21.2 mmt vs USDA 25.0. Matif rapeseed futures were sharply higher after increase attacks on Ukraine export port infrastructure. Sunoil prices are near 3 month highs. US Midwest 3 week forecast is dry. 2nd week temps are above normal. Weekly US old crop soybean export sales are est near 0-300 mt vs 80 last week. New crop 150-700 mt vs 209 last week. Total soymeal sales est near 125-500 mt vs 172 last week.
Corn futures are higher and back testing Wednesday high near 5.57. US Midwest 3 week forecast is dry. Weekly US old crop corn export sales are est near 200-500 mt vs 468 last week. New crop 50-500 mt vs 471 last week. Weekly US ethanol production was higher with margins positive. Dalian corn futures continue to trade higher on talk of increase buying of Brazil corn and rumors of interest in fall US corn. Russia attacks on Ukraine port infrastructure could increase China buying Brazil and maybe US. There is talk that 60 mt of Ukraine grain that was destroyed was grain for China.
Wheat futures continue to trade higher on concerns about global spring wheat production and Russia attacks on Ukraine port infrastructure. There is more talk of India importing wheat. Canada is still dry. At one point of Wednesday, WU tested up the limit near 7.31. WU is up 14 overnight and near 7.42. MWU is near 9.17. Wheat futures also up after Russia announced any vessel in Black Sea heading toward Ukraine is a legitimate target.
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