Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
A slightly higher start for the soy complex this morning with the prospect of another week of no government data including this afternoon’s Crop Progress, Commitments of Traders, and the Supply & Demand report later this week. Beans weakened late Friday on pre-weekend hedging but completed a weekly reversal higher, keeping the edge with the bulls. With US port fees on Chinese ships expected to take effect on October 14, some reports suggest that China may be losing interest in meeting with Trump at the APEC summit in South Korea unless the port fee issue is resolved. Trade talks with India are progressing, and discussions continue regarding India’s potential import of U.S. beans for oil and animal feed.
SOYBEAN MEAL
US meal prices rallied in the 2nd half of last week, following beans higher after President Trump mentioned midweek that his meeting with the Chinese leader in early November will include a discussion on soybean purchases. The government shutdown will limit the release of fundamental data this week, and the September Supply & Demand report and weekly Export Sales are unlikely to be released. Soybean harvest progress will also go unreported this afternoon, but most estimates have harvest pegged at 40%–45% complete. The 2024/25 bean crop was of very good quality for US soy processors with good protein content and high oil yield. The quality of newly harvested beans may be off from last season, especially in areas where the growing season ended very dry and bean sizes are unusually small. The US crush pace continues to increase following the end of seasonal maintenance downtime.
CORN
A steady start to the week on corn, combined with the ongoing government shutdown, means there will be no COT data and Crop Progress report this afternoon. With no new fundamental data, attention may be more focused on the technical outlook this week and any trade headlines.
WHEAT
The wheat market closed out last week on a slightly positive note, having bounced off new contract lows midweek. However, global fundamentals remain weak and rebounds consist of minor short covering, with traders waiting to sell a rally, at least until the downtrend shows signs of ending.
CATTLE
Live cattle and feeders closed higher on Friday, but live cattle open interest fell more than 6,200 contracts, indicating continued long liquidation. Open interest is now at its lowest point since early May. The Commitments of Traders report was not released on Friday, and the government shutdown is not helping retail meat demand. Global meat prices hit a new record high in September, and was the only main food-commodity group that increased for the month.
HOGS
Hog prices closed modestly higher on Friday after rebounding off support at Thursday’s low. Overall, last week’s technical action was poor with December futures taking out the September low. Open interest dropped nearly 2,400 contracts on Friday’s rally and was lower every day last week, indicating profit-taking by the longs.
MILK CLASS III
November Class III milk finished with a sizable weekly gain after climbing up to a 5-week high on Thursday.
ENERGIES
December Crude Oil was higher overnight after OPEC+ said it would raise production in by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) in November, the same as their increase in October. This is after the market sold off last week on expectations for a bigger increase. Saudi Arabia also left the official selling price of its flagship Arab Light crude to Asia unchanged after sources told Reuters last week they were expecting an increase of 20-40 cents per barrel. Chinese stockpiling of oil is viewed as a supportive element in the face of higher production out of OPEC, the resumption of Venezuelan exports, and the opening of the pipeline from Kurdistan to Turkey.
November Natural Gas opened lower overnight but is back in positive territory this morning. The 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts call for above normal temperatures from the Rockies to the East Coast and normal/below normal westward. EIA Gas storage increased lest than expected last week, and some are viewing this as evidence that the cooling demand brought on by the unusually warm weather is slowing the seasonal build, even if it means less cooling demand. Last week’s supply was +53 bcf versus a five-year average change for this week at +87. Storage was up 0.4% from a year ago and 4.6% above the five-year average.
DOLLAR INDEX
The USD index is higher as politics dominates currency markets Monday. Political uncertainty in France and Japan’s new prime minister led the dollar to advance strongly against the euro and yen. Focus in the US will largely center around the shutdown and the Fed’s September meeting minutes out on Wednesday. Investors will scrutinize opinions regarding the risks to employment and inflation and any signals on how interest rates will move at the Fed’s meeting later this month and in December. Delayed data could be released later in the week if the government agrees to a stopgap funding plan.
COCOA
December Cocoa extended last week’s selloff overnight and fell to its lowest level since last November. Based on the market action, traders believe harvest pressure has been boosted by the actions of the cocoa regulators in Ivory Coast and Ghana, which have aggressively raised their farmgate prices for producers. Late last week, Ghana raised its 2025/26 farmgate price another 12% to 58,000 Ghana cedis ($4,640) per metric ton, their second price increase this year. Earlier in the week, Ivory Coast raised its farmgate price to 2,800 CFA francs per kg ($5,050/ton), up 56% from last year. Both nations are raising farmgate prices to encourage farmers to sell their product and to discourage smuggling.
COFFEE
December Coffee was under pressure overnight but was back near Friday’s close later in the session. Brazil is still waiting for the arrival of seasonal rains. World Weather Inc expects an erratic shower pattern through next weekend in coffee production areas. The potential for more organized rainfall with greater amounts will rise from late in the weekend through the first half of next week.
COTTON
December Cotton is consolidating after falling to its lowest level since April last week. The Dollar index was sharply higher overnight, which puts some pressure on cotton on ideas that it makes US exports less competitive. Crude oil prices were a little higher overnight, offering some support to cotton. The government shutdown leave the market without its usual data clues, including the weekly Export Sales report last Thursday and the weekly Crop Progress report this afternoon.
SUGAR
March Sugar is higher this morning on technical buying after the market pushed though the neckline of a head and shoulders bottom pattern overnight. This is often viewed as a major reversal pattern. The fact that the market rallied last week off a neutral to bearish UNICA report may be an indication that the strong production expected out of Asia and Brazil have been already priced in.
PRECIOUS METALS
Gold moved higher, with prices breaking above $3,900, an all-time high, despite a stronger dollar, as political uncertainty in France and the prospect of a drawn-out US government shutdown led to safe haven buying. The US Senate failed to pass a plan to extend federal funding on Friday, while President Trump threatened to fire thousands of federal workers if he feels negotiations are going nowhere, per the White House on Sunday. Prolonged uncertainty surrounding the shutdown in Washington could continue to fuel investor appetite for gold.
Silver futures are higher, with silver prices breaking more than 14 ½-year highs. December contracts are currently trading above $48.
Copper prices slipped on Monday, as profit-taking and a stronger dollar weighed on prices. Benchmark copper on the LME fell 0.7% to $10,636 a ton earlier this morning. The absence of the Chinese market due to the holiday in China may have contributed to gold’s rally last week. Despite the drop in prices, supply worries are still relevant with operations at Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia remaining suspended following a deadly mudslide.
EQUITIES
The indexes are higher as AI optimism continues to fuel gains. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) announced a deal with OpenAI to deploy 6 gigawatts of AMD GPUs over multiple years, with AMD also issuing OpenAI a warrant for up to 160 million shares. AMD shares rose more than 22% in premarket trading. Mega-cap stocks also led gains, with the Magnificent Seven mostly higher ahead of the open. Focus in the markets this week will center around any developments with the government shutdown. If the shutdown continues, official US data will continue to be delayed as well as data collection efforts, which could raise questions in the future about the accuracy of upcoming data. Republicans and Democrats appear to remain at a stalemate, signaling that the shutdown could persist for longer.
INTEREST RATES
Futures are lower across the curve as political turmoil in France and policy uncertainty in Japan led to a rise in global bond yields. Markets in the US will prepare for a fresh round of Treasury auctions with $58 billion in three-year notes on Tuesday, $39 billion in 10-year notes on Wednesday, and $22 billion in 30-year bonds on Thursday.
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