Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
There was a weaker tone for beans at the start of this week after the Supreme Court’s tariff decision raised uncertainty on future China demand. Recent early-session weakness has found buyers, but the March contract first notice day late this week is a headwind.
SOYBEAN MEAL
May meal finished last Friday at its highest closing level since December 8 of last year on strong trading volume, which gives the technical edge to the bulls. Reports that the Indonesian trade deal, announced late last week, could include purchases of 3.8 million tonnes of US meal each year for the next 5 years prompted some new buying. The Supreme Court’s tariff decision on Friday muddies the waters, especially if countries decide to renegotiate.
CORN
Fund buying and spillover strength from wheat helped corn finish last week on a positive note, although the market still remains in a tight sideways range. Open interest dropped nearly 25,000 contracts on Friday. Commitment of Traders data showed funds were buyers of nearly 21,000 contracts, reducing the net Managed Money short to just over 27,000.
WHEAT
Wheat was the star performer last week in the grain complex as prices broke out to new 7-month highs. Technical buying and short covering are driving the advance. However, the March contract first notice day later this week may give recent longs a reason to snag some short-term profits.
CATTLE
The cattle complex closed lower on Friday ahead of the Cattle on Feed report. The report came in neutral/slightly bullish, with placements lower than expected and the smallest in 19 years. While the report may encourage buying this morning, cash trade on Friday was also higher, providing an additional boost. COT data showed Managed Money traders increased their net long position as of last Tuesday by 8,000 contracts. The market remains in an uptrend after the technical action last week.
HOGS
Hogs finished last week on a strong note. CFTC data showed Managed Money traders decreased their net long position by just under 17,000 contracts to 116,461 as of last Tuesday. The sharp weakness of a week ago did not shake out as many longs as expected, which could result in additional long liquidation if prices turn lower again.
MILK CLASS III
March Class III milk finished last week with a sizable gain after falling to a 4-week low on Tuesday and climbing to a 2-weeh high on Thursday.
ENERGIES
April Crude Oil was higher early Monday and was close to taking out Friday’s eight month high. The market is still finding support on expectations that the US could initiate an attack against Iran, now that the build-up of US forces have been put in place around the Persian Gulf. President Trump said last week that “really bad things” would happen if Iran does not come to an agreement to curtail its nuclear program, but he also mentioned a deadline of 10 to 15 days. One concern is that Iran may respond to US attacks by closing the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil supply passes.April Natural Gas started out higher early Monday but gave up a good portion of the gains as the session progressed. A winter storm brought heavy snow to the northeast over the weekend, but the area is expected to quickly warm up over the next couple of days. The 6-10- and 8-14-day weather maps showed above normal temperatures across most of the lower 48, except for some areas of the northern Plains, northern Midwest and New England, which are normal or below normal.
DOLLAR INDEX
The USD Index is little changed to start the week after initially falling in response to the Supreme Court’s ruling against President Trump’s IEEPA tariff measures, a decision that raised questions about the administration’s trade strategy. The dollar’s early pullback reflected reduced tariff leverage and uncertainty around the scope of future policy actions, though the administration subsequently announced a 15% blanket tariff on imports.
COCOA
May Cocoa was higher early Monday after a bounce off contract lows on Friday. The market has endured a steep selloff since early January, first due to lower-than-expected 4th quarter grind results for Europe and Asia, and then on reports of larger amounts of newly harvested cocoa going unsold in Ghana and Ivory Coast. Buyers have resisted paying the official farmgate prices in both countries.
COFFEE
May coffee saw a tow day bounce at the end of last week but was back lower this early Monday, after the market seemed to struggle at the 9-day day moving average on Friday. Good weather in Brazil points to a strong 2016 crop, which will be harvested in May or June.
COTTON
May Cotton was slightly lower early Monday after a breakout rally on Friday that took the market to its highest level since January 29. A Reuters headline that Safras & Mercado was forecasting Brazil’s 2025/26 cotton output to fall by 11.5% may have lent support. Also supportive was an export sales report that put US cotton sales for the week ending February 12 at 466,253 bales for the 2025/26 (current) marketing year and 33,138 for 2026/27 for a total of 499,391.
SUGAR
May Sugar was higher early Monday following a rally off contract lows last week. The large global surplus for 2025/26 is expected to shrink in 2026/27 but not disappear altogether. Low prices are expected to reduce beet plantings this year, lower the incentive for growers to invest in cane crops, and encourage ethanol production over sugar.
PRECIOUS METALS
Gold climbed to three-week highs after Friday’s Supreme Court ruling against President Trump’s tariff measures pressured the dollar and revived safe-haven demand. The administration responded by imposing a blanket 15% levy on imports, fueling further uncertainty over US trade policy.
Silver futures are up 5.4% to $86.91.
Copper prices are lower as inventories across warehouses continue to rise and as trade-related uncertainty weighed on sentiment ahead Chinese markets reopening on Tuesday. Benchmark three-month copper on the LME fell 0.4% to $12,913 after hitting a one-week high of $13,050 earlier in the session.
EQUITIES
Equity index futures are lower as renewed uncertainty surrounding US trade policy prompted investors to trim exposure to risk assets. Contracts on the S&P 500 and Dow are down 0.4%, while Nasdaq futures are off 0.6%. The weakness follows President Trump’s decision to impose 15% tariffs under Section 122 emergency powers, following Friday’s SCOTUS ruling, raising fresh questions about how the measures will interact with existing trade agreements and potential refunds.
INTEREST RATES
Treasury yields are lower, reversing Friday’s moves, with the 10-year slipping back below 4.06% as renewed uncertainty over US trade policy drove safe-haven demand. Market concerns are centered around the prospect that that existing trade agreements could face renewed strain, even as senior US officials sought to reassure markets that current deals remain intact.
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