Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
There was a stronger start to June across the soy complex, with another new contract high in bean oil overnight. July beans remain inside the recent range, and November beans inside its pennant formation. Technically, the recent consolidation looks to be more of a continuation pattern than a top. COT data showed Managed Money traders pared down their net long positions across the complex as of last Tuesday.
SOYBEAN MEAL
Meal is starting the new month under pressure ahead of this afternoon’s NASS/USDA April crush report. Bean oil is surging higher today on energy strength, and oilshare buying is also pressuring meal. Crush trading volume in May was extremely light, the lowest in at least 26 years, despite incredible profit margins. Bean oil used for producing biofuels during March jumped 21.2% year-over-year.
CORN
There was a disappointing start for corn this morning with prices slightly weaker, despite crude oil prices more than $6 higher. The weakness is likely due to better rain chances in week 2 across most of the Midwest growing region and the likelihood of strong early crop conditions in this afternoon’s first crop progress report of the season. In addition, harvest in Brazil has begun, and Mato Grosso is just under 2% complete, up from 1% a year ago. Production for the state is expected to be 5% lower than a year ago.
WHEAT
There was a slightly higher start for wheat this morning, but prices have closed lower during eight of the last 11 sessions. Technical weakness was a significant bearish factor last week, as the daily chart showed lower highs and lower lows since May 19.
CATTLE
The cattle complex closed weak on Friday, especially feeders, but a new report of screwworm detection just 31 miles south of the US border may be a catalyst for a stronger start this morning. Today’s reaction to the screwworm news will be important. If prices are unable to hold early-session gains, it could be an indication that the market is looking at other bearish factors and has priced in the Mexican border closure for now.
HOGS
An extremely weak close on Friday reinforced the bearish trend in hogs as August futures fell to a new low for 2026. COT data gave a clue to what has been pressuring hogs lately, as Managed Money traders reduced their net long by 61.5%, bringing it to only 13,000 contracts, its lowest net long since mid-2024. With the recent significant liquidation by speculative funds, technical pressure should begin to ease, but for now, the trend remains lower.
MILK CLASS III
July Class III milk finished last week with a modest gain after reaching a new contract low on Tuesday. The USDA reported that milk production has reached peak “spring flush” levels in the Northeast, but output has been declining in the Southeast and in California.
CRUDE OIL
July Crude Oil was higher early Monday after strikes by Iran and US over the weekend appeared to put the chances for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz further off into the future. US said it conducted “self-defense strikes,” and Iran was reportedly dropping more mines into the Strait of Hormuz last week.
NATURAL GAS
July Natural Gas turned lower Monday after reaching its highest level since March 27 earlier in the session, with traders clearly disappointed that the market failed to close a gap at 3.409. EIA reported US gross natural gas production rose to 135.52 billion cubic feet per day in March, up from 134.63 bcfd in February but still down from a record 136.01 bcfd in December.
DOLLAR INDEX
The USD index is 0.15% higher at 99.06, moving in line with the rise in oil prices following the flare up in strikes between the US and Iran. Currency markets are largely awaiting further developments around peace talks between the two countries ahead of jobs data at the end of the week, which could reshape some expectations over Fed policy.
COCOA
After starting out lower, July Cocoa reversed higher early Monday and was approaching Friday’s high. Cocoa arrivals at Ivory Coast ports totaled 22,000 million metric tons for the week ending May 31, down from 34,000 the previous week and equal with the same week last year. Cumulative arrivals for the 2025/26 marketing year have reached 1.659 million tons, up from 1.540 million at this point last year and the highest since 2022/23, when they had reached 2.104 million at this point in the season. The
COFFEE
July Coffee was higher early Monday but was in the lower half of Friday’s range down. The market is having a difficult time mounting a rally with a large Brazilian harvest approaching. Arabica supplies are expected to improve significantly as the harvest gets underway, but the pace has been slow so far; rains have slowed crop development as well.
COTTON
December Cotton was gapped higher overnight, opening at its highest level since May 21. It has since given back a good portion of its gains, but it was still above Friday’s high as of this writing. News over the weekend that India had suspended customs duties on cotton imports for five months may have provided support, as that could benefit US cotton exports.
SUGAR
July Sugar was higher overnight on follow through from Friday’s rally off a five-week low. The market was given some bearish news last week with the Brazilian UNICA data showing sugar production in the second-half of April was sharply higher than last year.
PRECIOUS METALS
June COMEX contracts moved lower overnight, as inflation fears and a stronger dollar pressured the metal following a flare up in strikes between the US and Iran overnight. Broadly, for gold expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates are likely to keep the metal under pressure, unless bond yields can maintain a move lower.
Silver futures are down 0.8% to $75.25.
Copper prices gained as fears of tighter supply outside of the US and strong demand lifted prices, while investors await further news regarding the US-Iran deal to extend a ceasefire as President Trump has yet to approve a final deal. Benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was up 1.5% at $13,840.
EQUITIES
Equity index futures moved higher overnight as investors looked past the recent flare up in strikes between the US and Iran, with the tech sector leading gains after Nvidia announced its new RTX Spark Superchip, which is set to rival AMD and Intel. Nvidia’s new offering adds fresh momentum to the tech sector, which has largely been responsible for the market’s rally in recent weeks. However, broader market gains were relatively muted as the rise in oil prices overnight limited gains.
INTEREST RATES
Yields are little changed across the curve, moving higher at the front end and lower at the long end with mostly sideways trading overnight. There is a host of labor data this week, with Tuesday’s JOLTS data for April and May’s nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. Both events are likely to shape Fed policy expectations, though the base case for policy in our opinion is a continuation of the status quo.
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