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Wkly Futures Market Summary For 6.16.2025

SOYBEANS

The soy complex ended last week on a very strong note after the EPA proposed significantly higher biodiesel volumes than expected, pushing bean oil to limit up price leves. Bean oil has followed through significantly to the upside again as it reached an 18-month high. Crude oil prices were significantly higher on the opening overnight but have now turned lower on the day after Iran’s oil exports were minimally affected and the Strait of Hormuz remains open.

SOYBEAN MEAL

The soy complex outlook shifted dramatically late last week, especially for the soybean products, as the EPA proposed much larger biodiesel blending mandates than expected just a few days earlier. The proposal resulted in a sharp limit-up price move in bean oil on Friday and additional strong gains today, reaching a 1 ½ year high, while soymeal fell to new contract lows and broke below the 45-day sideways pattern in meal futures. Board crush volume was extremely high on Friday, with daily volume as high as the recent average weekly volume. There is pressure on the soymeal market from the idea that strong crush rates will be needed to produce enough bean oil as domestic feedstock to fulfill the new mandates, which in turn will increase meal supplies. Prices must fall far enough to create demand for additional soymeal. Bean oil, on the other hand, must rise far enough to price-out exports to ensure supplies for higher domestic crush rates.

CORN

Corn prices are drifting lower this morning, following morning weakness in crude oil. The EPA’s proposed biofuel mandates did not result in a significant price move in corn, and with the strong overnight gains in crude oil fading, the bears retain the edge. US Midwest weather remains favorable, with rains over the next 5 days centered on Iowa and Minnesota and lighter amounts in the eastern belt. Temperatures will trend above normal in the central and eastern belts over the 6-10 day timeframe, but no extreme heat is expected. The 8-14 day outlook brings above-normal precipitation back to the north-central Midwest and normal temperatures to the eastern belt.

WHEAT

Following the strong rally on Friday, prices have pulled back modestly this morning due to weak corn prices and the ongoing HRW harvest. Israel and Iran show no signs of ending the conflict, which lends underlying support to global wheat prices. The risk of the conflict spreading to other Middle East countries is high, and that could result in a stronger focus on strategic grain reserves.

CATTLE

Live cattle and feeder futures ended the week sharply lower due to weakness in the stock market, ICE raids, and fears that the Israel-Iran conflict could escalate. Commitments of Traders data showed live cattle Managed Money net longs rose to a 10-week high, a record for the date, and another record high level in feeder cattle net longs as well. Cash cattle sales Friday afternoon were in line with prices seen earlier in the week.

HOGS

August hogs were weaker early in the session Friday but came back to close near unchanged. Commitments of Traders data showed Managed Money boosted their net long in hogs to a five-month high, which means there is plenty of fuel for long liquidation if prices are unable to recover today from Friday’s pullback.

MILK CLASS III

July Class III milk finished with a sizable weekly loss after falling to a 6-week low on Thursday.

ENERGIES

August Crude Oil opened above Friday’s high overnight but that was the high of the session so far. The Israel/Iran conflict has extended into its fourth day, with neither side slowing down. Israel has the upper hand, and the market is concerned what Iran will do if it gets desperate, specifically whether they would attempt to block the Strait of Hormuz, through which flows 20% of the world’s crude supply. This could draw the US into the conflict, but is could also alienate their neighbors. War invites uncertainty. The Baker Hughes rig count on Friday showed US oil rigs in operation were down 3 rigs to 439 last week.

The Israel/Iran conflict has reached the natural gas market, with Iran partially suspending gas production at the South Pars field after an Israeli strike caused a fire there on Saturday. Iran shares the field with Qatar, which it calls the North Dome. It is located offshore in southern Iran and is responsible for the most of the gas production there. Iran is the world’s third largest gas producer after the US and Russia.

DOLLAR INDEX

The USD index is lower, hovering near its lowest level since 2022 as investors closely watch developments in the Israel-Iran conflict. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady this week, but markets will be analyzing the bank’s summary on economic projections for insights into how policymakers view the broader economic outlook.

COCOA

September Cocoa was higher overnight but inside Friday’s range. Ivory Coast port arrivals did show an improvement over recent weeks, and that may have helped pull the market off its overnight highs. Arrivals for the week ending June 15 were estimated at 25,000 metric tons, up from 18,000 the previous week and the highest since May 4. Cumulative arrivals have reached 1.659 million up rom 1.652 million at this point last year but below the five-year average of 1.928 million. West Africa cocoa regions, from Ivory Coast to Cameroon and southeastern

COFFEE

The Brazilian coffee harvest appears to be advancing at an average pace. Safras & Mercado said on Friday that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee harvest reached 35% complete for the week ending June 11, up from 28% the previous week, down from 37% a year ago but above the five-year average of 33%. Sales of the expected output were in line with last year at 22% but below the five-year average of 31%. The Brazilian real has reached its highest level since October, which can make producers less anxious to sell.

COTTON

December Cotton extended last week’s recovery rally slightly overnight. The market found support last week from a revision lower in the USDA’s forecast for US cotton production this summer, and it also drew support from the sharp rally in crude oil that came in the wake of the Israel-Iran attacks, which have extended into their fourth day. Crude oil has backed off from its overnight highs, which pulls some of support from cotton. The drop in the USDA’s production forecast stemmed from the overly wet conditions in the Delta, which have delayed plantings.

SUGAR

October Sugar extended its selloff slightly overnight but avoided a steep selloff ahead of the UNICA report on Brazil’s sugar production for the second half of May, which is due out this morning. India’s monsoon rains appears to have restarted after a pause last week, and rains are expected to cover the central parts of the country this week. The nation has received 31% lower than average rainfall in the first half of June but is expected to see above average rain in the second half.

PRECIOUS METALS

Gold futures edged lower as investors weighed the impact of the Israel-Iran conflict. Investors will be watching developments in the Middle East very closely, especially the risk of other countries being dragged into the conflict. Investors will also be eyeing several central bank meetings this week, while the Fed is expected to hold rates steady. 

Silver contracts edged higher, remaining near 13-year highs supported by a structural supply-demand deficit, which is heading into its fifth straight year. Silver is largely a by-product of the mining of other metals, meaning an increase in price will not directly drive new supply, which will maintain the deficit for longer.

Copper futures are lower, as continued volatility amid persistent uncertainty over tariffs, underlying market fundamentals, and tensions in the Middle East continues to hang above investors’ heads.

EQUITIES

Stock index futures are higher, eyeing a rebound as the Israel-Iran conflict continues with both countries exchanging missile and drone strikes throughout the weekend and overnight. President Trump said on Sunday there’s a “good chance” of an Israel-Iran peace deal, but the hostilities may need to play out first.

Economic data this week includes retail sales and industrial production for May on Tuesday, followed by May housing starts and weekly jobless claims on Wednesday. The Fed will also meet this week, with the bank expected to hold rates steady while also updating its summary of economic projections.

INTEREST RATES

Futures edged lower across the curve, with yields little changed, as focus this week will center around any signals from the Fed on when the central bank will cut interest rates. Markets are expecting a 25 bps rate cut to come in September. The Fed will update its summary of economic projections as well, with investors paying close attention to signals from the bank on the broader economic outlook.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

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