Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. Next USDA report Dec 9. US stocks are higher. USD is lower. Crude is higher. OPEC agreed to no increase in production. Gold, silver and copper are higher. Bitcoin is higher. TIPP economic index rose in December but is still below 50 for 4th straight month. Index implies US consumer is less optimistic about US economy but more confident about own personal financial outlook. Big news yesterday was Russia aggressive rhetoric toward attacks on Ukraine port infrastructure after Ukraine attacked another Russia oil storage tanker.
SOYBEANS
SF is near 11.27. There were no new daily sales announced to China. Soymeal futures may be in trouble both technically and fundamentally with SMF testing Nov low. BOF testing Nov high near 53 on oil share recovering. There was talk India washed out Argentina soyoil in favor of China soyoil. ABARE est Australia canola crop at 7.2 mmt and 2nd higher on record. SF continues to trade around the 20 DMA with support near 11.20 and resistance near 11.40.
CORN
CH is near 4.48. US cash basis is firm. Dalian corn futures continue to trade higher due to debate on size of local crop. CH between 4.40 support and 4.50 resistance. Brazil corn futures near 7 month high due in part to weaker Real currency. Some have lowered Brazil corn crop est to 134 mmt due to late planting due to late soybean plantings. Ukraine harvest running behind normal. Some est that 25-30 pct of corn crop is yet harvested. Some est World major corn crop near 616 mmt vs USDA 610 and 564 ly.
WHEAT
WH is near 541. KWH is near 5.32. MWH is near 5.82. Wheat rallied on Russia retaliation talk. Argentina wheat crop protein down and could be more feed wheat Canada is expected to increase their crop to 38.5 mmt vs their Sep est of 36.8. Big crops get bigger.
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